After a fortnight away on the Indian Ocean, utterly removed from any news, it was quite worrying on my return to see what the fools who allegedly run my country had managed to destroy. Unsurprisingly the Lions have not yet won a match, but to see just how rapidly the state’s leadership vacuum is being filled by reprehensible thugs was astonishing. The president has neither the will nor the ability to do anything beyond playing Mr Nice Guy for which ever audience he has been plonked in front of. The appalling and unacceptable murder of even a rather unpleasant personality has evoked the risible appeal for people not to take the law into their own hands. There is no law of any sort being enforced and maintained in this sad country at the moment. Democratic, civilised and lawful behaviour is crumbling as fast as the roads.
The sole strictures which are evident are being served on local citizens who are attempting not to let the arrival of a few thousand football players and fans interfere with their normal activities. Just try and do anything that FIFA have not approved and the blue light brigade will clap you in irons. The nonsense of concepts like stadium pouring rights and protocol routes and Football Fridays are rightfully attracting scorn and derision as well as confusion and denial amongst folk who now realise that the money flows are taking place way above their heads. It will of course be fun to keep the fixture wall chart on the fridge door and pencil in the scores (generally nil-nil) and follow Bafana Bafana’s progress through the stages. However, the chart that would be especially interesting would be one that followed the money. Over on the left it would start with tax and rate payers.
Despite Governor Marcus slicing 50 basis points off the repo rate, the rand seems to be continuing with its bullish run. I have been told to expect this to continue right the way through until everyone goes home after the World Cup and that rand hedge positions taken in the next few months will look very clever by Christmas. The reasoning behind this strategy is obvious and simple but as usual has a no better than evens chance of working. Like all financial markets the order flows in the currency market are far more complicated and unpredictable than noting that a few tourists are buying wooden giraffes and a cold Castle with a dollar or two. The equity markets enjoyed a wonderful March, however.
Amongst the memories that I brought back from the cruise was the rapt attention and respect that the bus driver and tour guide paid to the apparently unusual appearance of crisp and official French policemen on the roadside in Reunion. Life on this scrap of land in the middle of the sea is already pleasantly organised and comfortably law-abiding, but the threat posed by the visiting gendarmes was clearly worth responding to. All South Africans on the coach were amazed – but they fastened their seatbelts and sat up straight as requested!
It will take a while for me to get into the swing of things with this long weekend after such a extensive break and normal service will be resumed as soon as possible.
James Greener
5th April 2010.
