Friday, 9 April 2010

A BULL MARKET IN CORRUPTION

So the World Bank has decided to grant Eskom the R27bn loan they need to build their power station. The fellows over at Hitachi Africa will be very pleased. Will they wait until the contracted work is actually complete and the profit is in the bank before they send a dividend cheque over to their 25% shareholder? Knowing the shareholder, however, I guess they will demand their money up front before doing anything as tedious as actually providing goods and services. But the biggest problem is that all electricity users are now liable for interest and capital repayments on a loan from which the ruling party will receive a substantial amount
The JSE All Share index has come within a whisker of the 30 000 level this week. Several commentators attach some sort of mystical significance to breaking above this nice round number but remember that it is still 10% off the peak attained almost exactly two years ago. Despite the strong rand, the resource shares have provided most of the action of recent weeks, but the JSE has performed much in line with most world markets. I doubt that this is the best buying opportunity we will have for most shares this year. Do, however, take note of our newest and only sizable coal listing (Optimum). Companies like this one and Sasol that produce primary energy products are always worth watching for buying opportunities. SAB Miller is also in that category
There will have been some hissing noises at National Treasury as they hooked the caps off a few small bottles of warm grape juice to celebrate the amazing reversal of some very alarming trends in both their income and their expenditure figures. Someone had clearly been shouting down the phone at the other ministries and year on year growth in state expenditure is now at a measly 16%pa after recent 23% pa levels. On the other side of the office, the tax collectors have obviously been busy with life-style audits of the rich and famous and managed to squeeze a near record R60bn out of the populace in the year’s shortest month. The 2009/2010 fiscal year deficit is no longer heading for the R200bn that once seemed possible but even at around R150bn no one ought to be happy.
It‘s official. The Bafana Bafana team is a basket case requiring charity just to rent a field on which to practice. Admittedly the fields are a tad pricey since they have decided that their fantastic talents deserve honing at overseas facilities. The National Lottery could be in breach of its charity supporting mandate by funding the national soccer squad. Animal charity supporters have long been disappointed that they are excluded from any Lotto funds and yet now we see them dishing it out to the lamest of ducks that allegedly already have a massive fan and sponsor base. What is happening?
People trying to travel through and to Pretoria one day this week were advised to be patient as many of the main roads across town were closed in order to accommodate the arrangements for the funeral of a politician. The rulers just don’t get it do they? It is private enterprise going about its business of creating wealth that pays the taxes.
Did you see that my fellow Lions fans were so incensed with the dismal performance of the team that they went and shouted at the management who were meeting at Ellis Park? The admission that “Kindergarten Contracts” had enabled possibly good players to abandon ship made me wonder if the lawyers that drew up those contracts have refunded their fees or at best been forced to take a 10-year lease on a corporate box at Ellis Park? At least the light blues won the boat race.
James Greener
9th April 2010