Contrary to popular belief I do consult charts from time to time but only to see the context of the current levels. I have little trust in my ability to project the darn things forward into the wild blue future. One of my favourites shows the daily history of six exchange-traded funds here on the JSE. In August so far it is impossible to discern any trend or signal emerging from what is nothing more than a tangled multicoloured bowl of spaghetti. No one sector or type of share is this month’s current winner or indeed clear loser. There must be some very sorry and also some very exciting tales being told by the fund managers who have been trying to spot and trade this market.
Students of my school of interest-rate prediction will have known the instant that Governor Mboweni tuned to face the microphones that he was not about to change the repo rate. Sure enough, after several minutes of soporific delivery of allegedly important but undoubtedly dubious economic numbers he announced what his cool blue tie had been screaming. In due course as his fear of being photographed deepens he will need only to hoist his tie on the Reserve Bank flagpole and the world will know the decision.
It has been another week when the most eye-catching financial news has been the strength of the US dollar. To bet against the greenback has been such a winning trade for so long that the severity and strength of the recovery must have destroyed many hopes and careers. The only cries of pain I have not yet heard are from American exporters who will surely soon begin to wail for protection? The thing that puzzles all us dollar bears is that there really so far has been not one scrap of news to suggest that the worst is over for that economy. But perhaps that in itself is the signal that the end is nigh.
Finally this country’s largest bank announced their half year results and managed to scrape together double-digit earnings growth and so overshadow the competition. Can this be the time to begin buying the financial shares again?
Look out for mielies and cows in Gauteng sporting short whip antennae. They will be customers for Gauteng’s proposed Geo-Referencing project for high Value Crops and Livestock. Why the country’s least agricultural province needs to use satellites to watch over its few farmers is not explained. Also never explained is why the state finds it necessary to relaunch, at regular intervals, its lamentably ineffective antipoverty campaign. Aside from the obvious attraction of lavish festivities at each event, will it never dawn on socialists that the costs and temptations of any program of sanctioned robbery and distribution has never worked?
I wonder if this coastal lifestyle thing is not starting to soften me up a bit. At half-time in the first tri-nations test I was so wound up that I went outside to breath deeply and watch the sea – and never returned to the TV after realising that whether I watched or not would not affect the result. Although tomorrow’s match is taking place at an hour when soothing chemical help is more palatable I am uncertain if I will switch over to at Newlands. After all I really can not miss a single round of women’s beach volleyball. And have you seen the ferocity of that handball business? Far more bruising than any front row battle. Who knew there were so many ways to work off a good lunch?
James Greener
15th August 2008.
