In the last few years I have I come to the point where I can acknowledge and even enjoy the market’s complete unpredictability. On average exactly half of everyone’s forecasts are comprehensively trashed, often embarrassingly soon after they are published. It took a mere three days for my claim that the All Share was not about to breach 28 000 to be rendered nonsense. Who knew that the Dow would indulge in leaps and dives of record proportions even while yet more news of the awful position of the US financial situation emerged? The sole reason for wanting to be president of that nation just has to be the perks and pension plan.
The few verities in this business include the observation that the attendance at most gatherings is proportional to the quality of the catering promised at that meeting and that the idea of appointing a committee to decide on the price of money is a bad one. These two items are not unrelated.
A number of data items have surfaced to provide plenty of material for analysts firstly to fill space with warnings that the terribly high official (but possibly incorrect) inflation numbers would leave the wise ones with no choice but to raise rates. Then someone noticed that in those markets where interest rates are determined by supply and demand, the interest rates are actually going down. Now the word is that next week’s meeting at the Reserve Bank will send Governor Mboweni out in front of the floodlights to perspire his way through a speech (already written) and then with a flourish to declare ‘no change”. And there’s plenty of time and space yet for confident calls of a rate cut.
Apparently the rand currency market believes that this last choice is very unlikely as it appears that folk have been happily selling other currencies and buying rands (or equivalently not selling rands and buying foreign currencies). Our little runt has gained almost 5% versus the mighty British pound this week. I know that their summer weather has been dreadful but surely they don’t need to send their money down to the southern tip for a sunny break?
My battle with Telkom continues and now a handicap in the form of a strike by most technicians has been declared. My excitement at being told by a robotic voice that my queuing time is approximately 25 minutes is low. At the end of one of many unsatisfactory calls to the ludicrously named Help-Line I decided to follow the advice in the Phone Book and asked to be put through to the CEO. The response was to refer me to Directory Enquiries for his telephone number! My link to the outside world is as thin and tenuous as my temper.
And I really need my email. How else will I be able to submit my proposal to the goons at Gauteng Provincial Legislature who are calling for proposals to form a Body Shop for their Economic Development and Planning Framework? Did someone “borrow” it and crash it into a lamp pole?
I guess the US president does get to scramble several thousand fighter places into the sky when he grabs the red phone and pushes the button. Our own man will merely hear a recorded message that neither of the two planes is ready yet and anyway the pilots are “on a course”.
James Greener
1st August 2008.
