UP THE CREEK IN A BARBED WIRE CANOE

Many of the professional commentators have been nodding wisely at the news that Number One is taking the threat of a downgrade seriously. He has, we are assured, plans. Everyone from the cabinet up, has been told to be rein in spending. But it won’t make any difference. The population as a whole neither knows nor cares for concepts such as prudence, frugality, debt control and all those things that distinguish a winning country from the rest. The president himself is hopeless with money and he has a history of choosing financial advisors who have been exposed as dodgy in the extreme. This government will never balance the books. It has no idea what that means. As long as there are taxpayers out there, all is just great. And if the state has to borrow and pay interest, well that’s the next generation’s problem.

But that lot aren’t showing much concern either. Their contempt for the norms and standards of a civilised and intelligent society was terrifyingly illustrated this week by the worsening behaviour of people claiming to be students intent on gaining an education. The deliberate and wanton destruction of art, artefacts, furniture and property in order to display their unhappiness was stupid and terrifying. This riotous spree has attracted world-wide attention and deepened the suspicion that this part of Africa is just the same as the rest. The ratings agencies will note that these future leaders reject civic responsibility and treat the suggestion that loans whether personal or institutional need to repaid as ludicrous and threatening. Junk status is probably too generous. Our parental, education and civil systems have created a generation for whom the likelihood of real productive employment is small. The frustration is understandable. The behaviour is not.

The University authorities have been bleating that they do not condone violence but that bird has long since flown the coop. They caved in last year when the students were finding something other than swotting to do. That was a big mistake and gave the youth the idea that they were all-powerful and infallible. The mystery in South Africa is why swift and appropriate action is not taken against vandals whether they are jiving in parliament or defacing and destroying public property.

And yet people have to eat and survive and thankfully there are many wise and sensible souls who ignore the politics which they know they can’t influence. Instead they continue to find ways to grow. A very heartening report tells of a substantial growth in factory investment, and several companies have been coming out with quite acceptable results. Consumers are still able to find the money for booze for example. Unfortunately, some of this expenditure is sourced from ill-informed decisions about saving. Because it is terrified of alienating voters ahead of local government elections later this year, the government, at the insistence of the trade unions, has withdrawn proposed regulations about contractual savings. Workers will not be forced into buying retirement products but instead can take their money and run. The yawning gap between what the government is expected to provide (in this case pensions) and the ability and inclination of those supplying the cash is one of South Africa’s really big problems.

And on the topic of really big, a buffalo bull named Horizon deserves a mention. Much of his fame rests on the record-setting spread of his horns. Whether or not these weapons are in the 25% portion of the beast that was purchased this week for R44m was not mentioned. The sentimental amongst us shudder at the thought of how the owners of this also record-setting R176m worth of buffalo will generate a return. Horizon himself probably has an opinion on this matter which might emerge only as he grows older and cantankerous.

It’s one of those weekends when the preferred mode of transport from Pietermartizburg to Durban is a canoe. This also means that the areas around the bowling club bar tonight will be filled with fit men and women wielding paddles. It might be difficult to get the barman’s attention so perhaps it will be best to stay at home and watch the cricket on TV

James Greener

Friday 19^th February 2016

NURSING GRUDGES

The markets are looking unafraid and even quite strong in places today. Obviously investors took to their beds early last night and didn’t watch the broadcast from Cape Town. The displays of disgraceful and childish behaviour both inside and outside the parliament building were far more revealing about our nation than a speech from Number 1. Anyone living in this country already knows or at least has an opinion about the State of the Nation. Those with a season ticket to the first class suites on the gravy train will undoubtedly say it is good. For the rest of us our estimations will range from the desperate through hurt and bafflement to the deeply saddened and disappointed. It must take a special kind of blinkered obstinacy not to see that we are in a really bad place and in dire need of wise leadership.

The century old compromise of using two different cities for the executive and legislative centres of national government has always been an expensive luxury. The semi-annual traditionally named “zoo-train” to transport the grand panjandrums from Pretoria to Cape Town and back are now a distant memory. It was inevitable that consolidation ought one day to happen and last night JZ told us that MPs will no longer have to fear the Cape winters. To what extent this is a cost-saving exercise and not really a punishment on the Western Cape Province for not supporting the ruling party is debatable. One piece of good news should be that the government will be able to demonstrate its solidarity with the asinine #Rhodesmustfall campaign and rid itself of Cecil John’s magnificent estate in the mother city. Cape Town should immediately begin lobbying for the return of Groote Schuur since there is now no call for a presidential palace under the mountain.

It’s rather scary that the Young Nurses Indaba can display so much ignorance and hatred in one statement. In rejecting the traditional white nurses’ uniform, their spokesman and founder asserted that Florence Nightingale’s work ethic robbed nurses of the professional courtesy they demand from their bosses. What this actually means is anyone’s guess but the further claim that the absence of colour in their uniform was holding the profession back from transformation is pretty clear. The Indaba wants neither their uniform nor the nurses wearing them to be white.

The rapid recent escalation of anti-white hate-speech is intolerable and alarming and to a great extent pointless. Except when disguised as tax-payers, whom the masses certainly can’t currently do without, white people are a small and shrinking minority in the country with little influence and almost no powers. In vain we await a stern government response to demands that whites must either leave or die and presumably take our malign inventions and chattels like science and technology with us. Demographic trends show that it won’t be all that long until the wishes of these extremists are granted and the paradise that could have been shared and enjoyed by all South Africans of whatever origin will no longer exist. How very very sad.

Who is suddenly buying gold? In dollars it is at a one year high and compared to all other commodities (of which, the purists insist, gold is merely one) it is blasting into the stratosphere. Thanks to our dodgy currency the rand price of the metal is well into all-time high territory. A Krugerrand will now cost you R19 000, double what it was just 6 years ago. This is a very interesting development and one to watch.

It is always interesting when the cameraman aims at the rows of padded seats outside the presidential box at the cricket stadium. The first reaction is just who are all those guys and what do they do for the game? The next is to weigh up whether the benefits of a free seat in the shade behind the wicket plus complimentary bar and buffet outweighs the misery of having to wear a tie all day. Hmm. It would be worth trying.

James Greener

Friday 12^th February 2016

JUNK TOPICS

Reportedly there is real panic in some of the shorter corridors of power where those who know what’s happening have their offices. It’s all to do with looking for things to sacrifice in order to appease the mighty Ratings Agencies and stop them declaring that our nation’s fiscal state is Junk. This “junk” thing is actually way more important than it deserves to be. It is a harsh term for an arbitrary level about two-thirds of the way down a subjectively constructed ranking table of an organisation’s (including countries) supposed ability to pay interest and repay capital on its borrowings. Actually the payment versus non-payment of monies due is pretty much a binary thing as anyone with experience of debt will know. However, the agencies have constructed a very tidy niche for themselves from where they proclaim a range from “Definitely” to “No Chance” with many degrees of “Possible” and “Probable” in between. Their record on these matters is not without severe mistakes in both directions.

Nonetheless many investors still place great store by these rankings and will sell off any holdings which fall below the junk level. Furthermore, organisations and nations with a junk rating will normally have to pay much higher interest rates for any money they borrow. The panic is therefore understandable. Regrettably the remedy which is to reduce government interference quickly and drastically is unpalatable to a leadership dominated by communists and socialists who always know better than markets.

The news that our president has changed his mind and has offered to refund the taxpayers the costs of some of the upgrades to his private home in the heart of Zululand, raises even more questions than before. Even on his reported official salary of almost R5m a year before tax and the demands from of a flock of wives and children, JZ would find it hard going to make any real dent in the R300m odd that the public protector thinks he ought to pay back. This will be a challenge for his current personal financial advisor.

Once again it is necessary to follow the money in this dreadful business of the Eskom coal supply contracts. A colliery, which faces a heavy fine for delivering under specification coal to an Eskom power station, has been sold. The seller claims to be unable to make a profit at the agreed contract price. The new owners, who have good friends in high places are presumably confident that they can do so. Just how that friendship can raise the standard of the coal as well as allegedly the price, remains to be seen.

A real mystery however, is why so many people have applied for tickets to attend next week’s State of the Nation Address (SONA to the cognoscenti) to be delivered by Number 1 in parliament. Historically his formal speeches are soporific affairs but presumably applicants are willing to risk being caught on camera dozing in the chamber in order to flaunt their talents for the gaudy and gauche on the red carpet outside before the start. It’s a far cry from the olden days when all there was to marvel at were the selection of frocks and hats. And doubtless there will be excellent catering on offer in the parish hall afterwards.

It’s the time of year when the Super Rugby coaches with the biggest problems tend to made the wildest claims about their prospects for the season. It seems likely that several SA teams will languish near the foot of the overall log all season. We simply don’t have the players to field six competitive franchises whatever the suits and the politicians claim about our “depth of talent”. We are also apparently battling even to pay them. It’s also looking grim in the Proteas camp especially in the bowling department. Another case for the term junk perhaps. Losing to England in Bloemfontein was terrible even if it was because of collusion between Lewis, Duckworth and the weather.

James Greener

Friday 5^th February 2016