One of the
simplest of daily economic parameters is published by the SA Reserve Bank and reports
the sum of actual cash (notes and coins) sloshing about in the pockets,
handbags, piggy banks and bank vaults of the nation. Normally this is a
metronomic oscillation from a high at month end when people draw cash to pay
bills and go shopping and a low about 2 weeks later when the belts begin to be tightened.
The highest amount for obvious reasons is always at Christmas time, and this
recent holiday peak saw a record R170bn. However, we are currently seeing that
level of currency availability again as presumably the state’s cash injection
policies are gaining traction. One wonders if the black-market tobacco trading isn’t
also showing up in this figure.
As expected,
the complicated multi-level structure of the lockdown would appear to be
collapsing as common sense, legal pitfalls and citizen desperation each play
their part. Nevertheless, government, which appears to be totally ignorant of
and immune to these forces have just extended the National Disaster Legislation
for a further month. Obviously, this now has nothing to do with further health facilities
preparation. President Cyril himself has
implied that the Covid-19 Incident is providing a marvellous opportunity to
advance the ANC’s program for the National Democratic Revolution while
distracting the many pesky and ungrateful citizens. This week’s program included
forming a State Bank, creating a state-owned pharmaceutical manufacturer and resuscitating
SAA. That not one of these entities is necessary, affordable and most importantly
has any chance at all of surviving to do anything more than enrich the usual
suspects, is the simple story.
The utter
confusion that has accompanied the government’s plans to reopen the public
schools has brought into the open the fears that many of us have. That we will become
infected by the virus, and after a lonely undignified period in a hospital ICU ward,
die a miserable death without any opportunity to say goodbye. For parents committing
their children to schools the concern is that it increases the child’s chance of
being infected. But the inevitability that hundreds of thousands of poor souls will
in the coming months become infected and, in some cases, not survive COVID-19, is
increasingly being accepted. Principally because in fact the risks of oneself
being infected are numerically quite low and comparable to many other threats
as we live our lives, but more importantly, the economy must start up. We definitely
don’t like it, but we have no other choices. The demand by the unions for a guarantee
that no one going to school will get infected is impossible to fulfil and it is
ingenuous and misleading for them to pursue this line. It is hard to separate this
demand from the fact that they have and will remain on full salary while this
fight is waged.
Tidemarks has
remarked before at the wealth of amusing stupidity that the lockdown created.
This week a government minister, incensed by the fact that the 9 week long ban
on the sale of tobacco products was manifestly being circumvented, insisted
that anyone found smoking would be faced with prosecution unless they could
produce the till slip verifying the purchase in the distant (legal) past. This
was yet another chance missed by President Cyril to fire an obviously foolish
official. Minister Cele (for it is he) should in turn be asked to produce the
till slips for his many hats. They too are a health hazard.
Things are
stirring in professional sport all over the world. Many organisations are
facing financial ruin and when this is all over the structure of both local and
international sporting competitions and fixtures will be very different from
what we have become used to. The historical SANZAR rivalry at levels below test
matches is under review and Super Rugby is unlikely to survive. Important sponsors
are quietly saying their goodbyes and the crucial cash flows from selling TV rights
are in jeopardy. Although it is worth complaining that our own pay to view
sports broadcaster (Supersport), has failed to pass any savings it may have
enjoyed from not having anything to broadcast, to its own subscribers!
James
Greener
Friday 5th
May 2020
