The
combination of crashing stock markets, increased rationing of electrical power
and utter confusion about the COVID 19 viral infection spreading across the
world, have pushed us all into a very different place from where we were just a
few weeks ago. Worth particular mention is that while the gold price has soared,
the oil price has plunged and for the first time ever, oil producers need to
deliver more than 45 barrels of oil to be able to afford just one measly ounce
of gold. The very long-term average for this ratio is around 20. The internet
chat-meisters are muttering about a tussle over this commodity between Russia
and the USA. Trump has closed his borders though it’s doubtful that the virus
worries much about passports and visas.
No one will
have found any shelter from this storm even if the man at the end of the bar is
boasting about hedge fund strategies and his stash of Krugerrands. The fact is
that all the various metrics that try to capture volatility and
unpredictability of day to day moves of the various prices and indices this
past week have gone off scale. If the prices weren’t going down fast they were
going up before turning around again. Even so called “circuit breakers” which
automatically halt trading on some markets to allow everyone to catch their breath
and take stock of the situation weren’t slowing the plunges appreciably. This
will be a memorable bear. The sole winners will have been those whose entire hoard
is in Krugerrands buried in the garden!
Its little
wonder that SA Business Confidence Index has dropped to an all time low. All we
can hope for is that it will one day turn around. For that to happen it will
need a significant change in attitude and mindset of our leaders who continue
to hassle our already badly damaged wealth and employment creators. A very
large fraction of what passes for news reporting today is the rehash of press handouts in which yet another minister
issues a foolish and superfluous edict. This will be accompanied by assurances
that their staff are “working round the clock” shufflimg the requisite papers. Ha!
The other
entertainment put on by the authorities designed to amuse and distract us is
the holding of commissions of enquiry. While they have fancy names and terms of
reference all we want them to do is to establish who stole how much and then put
them in prison for a long time. But the evidence is growing that this is not
going to happen. Words and more words and fake sick notes and slimy excuses and
buck passing, and unsigned extradition treaties are all that has really happened.
The opportunity to punish those who have plundered the nation’s resources is
slipping away. All that these commissions
have revealed is that to many, a billion rand is not a big sum of money! And
that our current public protector is clueless about who she is supposed to
protect.
A small item
which may have escaped your notice is the idea being discussed in Dar es Salaam
that employers must deduct 40% of men’s monthly salary and pay it directly to
their wives. Reaction to this obvious play for the female vote has not been
reported. This is however a perfect example of how the appallingly low calibre
of leaders worldwide who chose public service because the pay was good have little
to contribute except to tell us how to run our lives. The corona virus has
elevated every bureaucrat and politician to the level of expert epidemiologist,
able, without hesitation, to demonstrate how to wash one’s hands.
Its increasingly hard to find a sports event
to watch as the virus threat has caused organisers either to cancel fixtures altogether
(like the Australian Grand Prix) or close the venue to spectators which renders
the match and the TV coverage rather boring. I have discovered that the annual
DJ Run between Joburg and Durban for motorcycles made before 1937 is happening
now. The finish is at Shongweni Polo club tomorrow. Those old leathers that the
riders will be wearing will see off any corona virus!
James Greener
Friday 13th March 2020
