A certain
amount of panic has broken out over a roughly 5% fall in the major USA share
indices so far this month. This is neither large nor rare but because the share
markets are widely thought of as the embodiment of people’s right to get rich
without working, anxiety is the order of the day and material for dozens of extraordinarily
attractive young women on TV to say calming things and blame President Trump. The
fall guy in the UK is of course Boris Johnson where the decline is almost double
the US experience. The JSE correction is like the London one, but when seen
through the lens of a sizable currency weakening as well, it makes our market
the most uncomfortable one around. A rather nasty price correction is also
smashing the local bond market – an asset class that for historical reasons the
state-run funds are very exposed to.
Unsurprisingly
this kind of event is seen by most of the nation as merely a richly deserved
come-uppance for the beneficiaries of all that white monopoly capital. The reality
of course is that everybody is suffering, as the overwhelmingly black
membership of the nation’s largest savings pools are very exposed to these
share price events. Whether through ignorance or because they don’t care to or
maybe because it’s too late, the nation’s leaders refuse to explain to everyone
that an attitude of entitlement is utterly unhelpful and won’t improve anything.
Or are they mute because it’s a particularly ironic and hypocritical standpoint
while they, the elite, are busy preparing yet another state-owned entity – this
time the health system -- for evisceration and plunder by the suitably placed.
The senseless
violence that breaks out when the populace realise that politicians are both
incapable and largely uninterested in delivering on any promises is terrifying.
The looting and theft and destruction of everything that has been delivered to
or is destined for the mobs themselves is one of the hardest aspects of trying
to understand South Africa.
Frequently
countries like ours, teetering on the brink of insolvency, may be offered aid
from an entity like the International Monetary Fund. If granted, it comes in
the form of a loan of dollars and a big stick of austerity wielded by a humourless
international banker. With this in mind, several commentators have suggested
that a far gentler option would be for government to realise that the route out
of the morass is not to have ceremonies whenever another toilet is opened, but
to let the people themselves decided best how to recover and benefit from the
immense value in the natural resources lying on and in the ground. To do this,
the government needs, without compromising on environmental issues, to relax two
dozen years’ worth of employment legislation and regulation.
These days
the Krugerrand that you bought as a hedge against politician stupidity can be
sold for around R24 000, as much as R7 000 more than you might have
paid for it in the last few years. But
don’t sell now. There are still tons of idiocy coming.
It’s a well-worn
complaint but there is something totally obscene about a young nation like ours
spending such a large proportion of its resources on fighting each other and
the government in the courts. It’s particularly annoying are when both sides are
permitted to submit their lawyers bills to the tax payers AND then they repeat
the whole nonsense in an appeals hearing – and not just one either. Interestingly
the futurists who think on matters such as the impact of Artificial Intelligence,
predict that AI will reduce the need for lawyers. They clearly haven’t looked
at SA yet!
This is the
700th edition of Tidemarks, that’s about half a million words
carefully selected and placed in what I felt was the right order. Thank you for
reading and for the kind feedback you have sent from time to time.
James Greener
Friday 16th August 2019
Elvis died 42 years ago
