Academics are
renowned for finding research topics that will prise open the purses of philanthropists
who rather fancy the idea of having a building or even a chair named in their
honour. And the concept of Political Arithmetic is pure genius since it
recognises that about the only real weapons (barring ceremonial maces, hard hats
and well-polished brogues) a politician can wield to bolster up their image or besmirch
the opposition are numbers. From the easily counted like toilets built,
libraries closed, airlines saved, power stations broken and money stolen. To
the controversial and theoretical, like inflation lowered, GDP raised,
unemployment solved, currencies picked up and services delivered. All these
items are grist to the mill of a Political Arithmetician, the best part of
which is that they avoid the taint of being called an economist.
There is a department
of Political Arithmetic at the University of Amsterdam. Our previous president
JZ might profitably have registered for a few semesters there as his counting
was none too sharp. In fact most of the people who haunt our halls of democracy
could do with a refresher course in long division with particular emphasis on
statistics denominated in units of “per capita”. This is the unit that socialists
always ignore when they contemplate, with envy, the assumed wealth of the
relatively few well-off high-profile citizens. Their plan as always is to take
from the rich and give to the poor after, of course, deducting a modest
commission. Now assuming that these well-meaning do-gooders have a reliable
method for identifying deserving poor (would for example, possession of a
mobile phone exclude someone from this category?) the task of dividing the total
confiscated wealth by the number of beneficiaries yields a disappointingly
small number. Somewhere in the region of the cost of a very careful single trip
to a supermarket. And then it’s gone. And in all likelihood, so too are many of
the wealthy, reluctant to play that game again.
But why does
a SA Cabinet Minister need further education to see that a quick way to solve
some of the government’s financial woes is to sell everything that’s not nailed
down. While there might be a few exceptions amongst the very long list of State-owned
enterprises, the vast majority can go under the hammer. The bad news is that
they are not worth very much and the large numbers of immediately unemployable
deadwood will be very unhappy, but if coupled with a relaxing of labour law it
might just save our bacon. Everyone relax. It won’t happen.
We have
commented before about the timeous and transparent torrent of statistics
produced by our government. Sadly, however, rather like the private sector’s
equivalent of company reports, the professional glossiness of the well-crafted
webpages are concealing probable problems in the raw data. This week’s publication
of the consumer price index for April (4.4% pa) is hard to reconcile with personal
experience and one wonders if the folk at Stats SA ever give their own numbers
a hard look. How can it be that recreational equipment absorbs 1.2% of an
average consumer’s spending while the weighting for public transport is 2.3% ? Do
those poor souls waiting for the minibuses in the dark and cold go home and
work out with their own set of dumbbells? And do they spend 5 times more on
insurance than on that taxi fare? Interestingly, despite all forms of
government intervention, we still spend 2% of our money on tobacco. Far more
than on vegetables (1.3%). Certainly, the spending habits of the author and
readers of these words in no way resemble the average consumer but still there’s
a worry that the data is misleading.
Suddenly the CEO
of Old Mutual is on the streets! Will he call Theresa May for a mutual commiseration?
Goodness but there’s a lot of strange news out there.
Watching
Sevens Rugby requires a strong heart as the lead can switch in an instant and
there is little time to recover. Arithmetically the Blitzbokke can win the
series but the idea of the USA being the top nation in this format is
intriguing. Now its time to arrange the furniture so it will feel more like
being on a yacht in Monaco for the GP. And then to find the Sharks shirt and
Lions cap in order to avoid being made to walk the plank.
James Greener
Friday 25th May 2019
