It’s alarming
that now even SA’s presumed key financial daily newspaper is so dubious of the
GDP growth results that it relegates its report to page 2 under the heading of
Agricultural Growth. The 2.5% pa headline number was indeed a great surprise particularly
when the breakdown reveals that government’s contribution actually declined and
was the sole sector to do so. Crucially and worryingly the construction
industry is reported to have shown zero growth. We have remarked before the “look
and feel” of these quarterly GDP announcements has been deteriorating for a few
years now and it is probably unwise to place too much trust in these figures.
Regardless of what the flamboyant and entertaining Statistician-General has to
say, his department’s product is losing credibility.
But
reputation and probity count for little in the corridors of power. The numerous
photos of Number One in poses of triumph and victory with his best friends of
the BRICS nations at a recent gettogether raise many questions. Like why do the
Big Men of Russia and China consent to being seen in the company of a small-time
operator like Jacob Zuma. What do they want from us that is not already
captured by other shady characters? Has the Saxonwold Shebeen management
approved this meeting?
A delightfully
irreverent comment attached to a picture of these head honchos simultaneously
mashing 5 large starter buttons for some project or other pointed out that it
was certain that the SA and Brazilian panels were not connected to anything. Similarly,
there must be some doubt if the shiny new R5bn joint deal between the Russians
and ourselves to develop oil and gas blocks offshore SA will connect with
anything useful. Despite the PetroSA claim that their “guys negotiated the deal
well into the night” the winners appear to be the men in the fur hats. Our
return in this deal is to find cheap and plentiful hydrocarbons but the
likelihood od that is very small.
The one area
where SA is right up in the big league is in the terrible standard of available
candidates on offer to replace the incumbent. Not one of the half dozen or so hopefuls
for leadership of the ruling party and thereafter president of the country looks
able to raise the level of honesty and capability currently so grievously
absent in our poor land. The dirty
tricks campaigns being waged by the players against their opponents are just as
boring and sleazy as any seen north of the equator. At the very least anyone
with a single digit IQ and a CV with false claims ought to be refused entry to
the contest. A third test of matching their personal balance sheet to the past
twenty years of tax returns will surely eliminate the rest. Let’s try doing
without a government for a year and see if we are any worse off. We’d certainly
save a great deal of money.
Many analysts
are now writing about the problem with the JSE market indices. Thanks to the
really great investment many years ago into a Chinese internet business by the
hitherto rather boring Naspers, this company now dominates the JSE in almost
every measure of size and swamps the signals that the All Share and similar
indices are supposed to send about the domestic economy and markets. Ground
floor investors in Naspers couldn’t care less but those who hope to use the indices
for more general analysis are getting annoyed and calling for changes to be
made. That this disruptor has arrived more or less as the Exchange Traded Fund products
are coming of age is rather ironic and newcomers to investing are getting a
lesson that we old timers don’t believe they should be learning! Add to this
the fact that bond yields are dropping, the rand is doing OK and it makes
investing look so easy.
Bafana Bafana
mucked up their world cup chances by probably setting some kind of record goal
difference per national capita statistic. The boy racers of Durban’s night time
streets, however, are out prove that Ferrari is still the fastest way to wipe
out a lamp post and a car despite the ominous Mercedes victory at Monza. Just how good the ‘bok rebirth is this season will
be seen tomorrow when we meet the Wallabies. Fortunately, our fellows will be
back in green and gold and it’s an away match so we can start celebrating early.
James Greener
Friday 8th September 2017
