Some rather high profile experts have
declared that this is not a bear market but simply a correction. Well maybe.
The JSE’s All Share index is still (just) up on the year and has clawed back a
shred of decency in that last few days but the currents against it are strong.
Probably the biggest headwinds are the weak commodity prices. Given the robust
and even frightening growth in the global population the reasonable assumption
for years has been to assume that demand
for stuff to eat and materials to fashion into things like shelter and
transport would at the very least be steady. The prices say otherwise. In the
words of Warren Buffet, “Now that the tide has gone out we can see who has been
swimming naked”. Seemingly much of the now absent demand was a result of
(principally Chinese) politicians insisting that they could allocate resources
better than markets. The alarming development for us is that our politicians
here are still getting ever keener to control ownership and set prices.
Adding to the gloom was the publication
of one of those numbers that only the really initiated claim to understand
while the rest of us display the appropriate knee-jerk reactions. Stats SA
revealed that (economically at least) the country went backwards at a rate of
1.3%pa in the second quarter. It is not known if the slightly eccentric,
grandly-styled Statistician General had alerted Number 1 to this shocking news
before his “All is well” speech a few days ago. Perhaps he ignored it, because
proper economists need a second consecutive quarter of negative growth before
officially declaring that a recession has been sighted. It would be
unsurprising therefore if next time somehow, Stats SA churns out a positive
figure. A close and sceptical inspection of the published GDP figures of the
past decade makes one uneasy about their integrity. Economies are actually
giant lumbering animals difficult to turn around sharply and the published
quarterly growth figures are suspiciously volatile when compared to the data
sets before about 2008. Collecting data is a boring thankless job and political
patronage and recognition is hardly ever lavished on those with a bad story to
tell. Just saying.
Despite the news about the skill and
powers of some extremely nimble and somewhat dodgy trading rooms, it remains
the case that of all the markets, currencies probably most accurately reflect
the relative weights of supply and demand. And the poor old runt is still
getting hammered which indicates that even all the jetting about by the high
and mighty in planes owned by ones dubious friends has not yet encouraged
foreigners to accumulate any (rands)!.
There’s something rather odd about a
government outfit that builds dams and pipelines calling for tenders for
someone to provide professional services to develop and implement a cultural
heritage plan. One would think that heritage is something nurtured by
individuals who believe their society has something worth remembering and
preserving. It’s not the sort of thing that involves meetings and mission
statements and action plans and all the other things that sleek and slick consultants
will gleefully prepare for a majestic fee.
And on the topic of water and heritage it
turns out that the half page full colour advertisement about “Empowering Women
in Water” has nothing to do with synchronised swimming. It’s a conference,
which amongst other things will see the launch of The Women in Water
Entrepreneurship Incubator. That sure ticks lots of boxes. But it’s puzzling
that no one has yet noted how condescending and ironic this notion is. Around
here, the task of fetching water has always been women’s work. It’s a Heritage
thing.
In preparation for tonight’s ‘bok World
Cup squad announcement a very clever check list for fans has been published to
help them vent their outrage, indignation and despair. The point to remember,
however, is that the teams we meet will also have been sent off with the
criticisms of their fans ringing in their ears. It’s going to be tough for
everyone.
James Greener
28th August 2015
