No one
has yet actually spotted the bear in the camp site. But the evidence that he is
close is mounting up and some of the more nervous campers are rolling up their
sleeping bags and stamping on the campfire embers getting ready for a hasty
exit. The markets around the world reported an astonishing range of different
experiences in July. Russia
and Germany
both posted fair sized pull backs - though perhaps for very different reasons.
Hong Kong and China
both polled better than 5%. In SA the fellows down in the Cape of Storms
were obviously too busy bailing out their offices to pay much attention to the
market and the JSE All Share ended the month less than 1% up.
The
jumpiness has become very evident in the
last few days when this index both set a new high (above 53300) and then
plunged almost 3%. It is the resources shares which are responsible for most of
the damage. Historically on the JSE, August is the month in which some of the
most extreme performances have been experienced. A few readers may recall the
30% collapse in August 1998 and fewer still the 17% rise in August 1982.
Records are set to be broken! However please don’t put too much money on the upside
record being threatened in 2014.
Other
numbers which allowed the scribblers to fill a few column inches were
unemployment, inflation and the trade gap. This last is one of the more
volatile of the monthly statistics that really tell a useful story only after
heavy long term averaging. Unfortunately it is clear that we are not managing
to grow the value of our exports very much at all while our demand for shiny
and new stuff made by foreigners is insatiable. The reasons for the results on
both sides of this equation are numerous and often complicated.
Ensuring
that our exceptionally fine network of national roads is maintained and
extended ought to be a task that is done quietly, competently, and more or less
invisibly. Distressingly, however, our outfit with that
responsibility, SANRAL,
appear to be unable to do anything without a great deal
of fuss. The e-tolling debacle in Gauteng
looks as if it may infect the Western
Cape, but no one is allowed to know because it is all
a great secret. Clearly money flowing in unusual directions must be at the
heart of the mess. It really is time for the fuel levy to be ring fenced in the
National Revenue Fund so it can be channelled
to the purposes for which it is raised. It must not be used to help fund events
like a R200 000 fly past at an inauguration.
Isn’t everyone being rather too casual
about the 87 000 ounces of gold which a new accounting system at Rand Refinery
allegedly managed to obliterate? The
implication is that the old accounting system was frankly useless and now the
shareholders (the four big gold mining businesses) have obligingly filled the
hole with R1.2bn in cash. Perhaps they hope that the next accounting system
will find the gold and refund their money?
Another accounting wonder concerns the
R7bn profit reported by Eskom accompanied
by incessant whining that they are not allowed to charge enough to cover
their costs for the electricity they supply. Why do the simple sums never add
up?
Gracefully I accept that the Proteas are
back as Number One Test Playing Nation and that the Aussies should be sending
the Mace back home where it belongs as soon as possible. However the Sri Lanka two-match
series was not really satisfying and the Proteas need to notch up some proper
victories in much longer series. In the meantime didn’t those Sevens fellows do
well in Glasgow?
The best part has been the New
Zealand press grumping about the whole
affair.
James Greener
International Girlfriend Day
