One of the drawbacks of being almost
perpetually bearish and waiting for “a better time to buy” is that one is wrong
for far longer than one is right. Even if these record setting highs are simply
the climax of a huge bubble which is due to burst, just about everyone’s
portfolio is currently looking smarter than ever before.
Among the many gauges, indices and
benchmarks compiled by analysts attempting to condense and interpret reams of
data there is a Consumer Credit Health indicator. The latest number supports
the anecdotal view that citizens here in South Africa are still battling to
service loans. The economy is, however, a huge and many headed beast and one
can usually find news that will suit and support whatever one’s personal
prejudice and position of the moment might be. Nevertheless some of the
calculations which try to quantify the financial damage of the seemingly
unending platinum miner’s strike are very worrying and it seems likely that the
scars of this event will be deep and lasting.
The tagline on the very lengthy fine
print advertisement for the positions of Chief Executive Officer and Chief
Financial Officer for the SABC is that the state broadcaster is the “employer
of choice”. The copywriter has omitted the words “… for just as long as it
takes to negotiate a large departure bonus”. It seems that these posts carry
demands and responsibilities that no normal person can fulfil and the list of
people who have come and gone might rival an average voter’s roll in length. Is
it the ceaseless calls from His Master Voice telling you what to do that
becomes wearisome?
No sooner had the newest Mandela statue
been unveiled in Cape Town
than a police van managed to reverse into it and cause some damage. Many folk
claim that this is a bad omen and the forthcoming election result will cause
even more damage to the man’s legacy. By the way, I trust the ear of this bust
has been checked for small rabbits. Remember what happened in Pretoria?
Without begrudging the celebrations to
mark 20 years since the first universal franchise elections in South Africa,
it must be pointed out that the country was formed in May 1910. We may
therefore cut cakes, blow out candles and sing happy 104th birthday
only at the end of this month.
Governments
around the world are delighted to have been handed something that they can tax
while claiming that it is all in a good cause. National Treasury have
reportedly arrived at a figure of R120 per ton for a tax on emitted carbon
dioxide. Anyone familiar with Avogadro and his number can probably swiftly
calculate how many kilos of this terrible noxious compound each of us exhales
per day. Especially after strenuous exercise the total could soon grow quite
large. Presumably, like eToll invoices,
the carbon dioxide emission tax bills will one day pitch up in the letter box. What
if we refuse to pay? Certainly the windbag motor-mouth politicians will quickly
arrange exemptions for themselves.
Only the truly keen will have waded through
the lengthy description of the proposed Super 18 format that may be coming in a
year or so. With more conferences than an ANC caucus, it looks at first glance
to be fiendishly involved. In my view
the increase in the number of teams, players and matches will cause a dilution
of the concept that the Series is a prestige and premier event envied by all
the excluded nations. If this question were on Wednesday’s ballot paper I would
vote to return to a Super 12 format which would be completed before the winter Tests
start.
James Greener
2nd May 2014
