The bears were just about to start celebrating their prescience as
the All Share looked set to plunge through 39 000 without pause, when suddenly,
with the start of a new month, everything is alright again. The index is 1000
points up and the furry ones are left to wonder what is going on.
Despite being a short month, February certainly delivered a lot to
think about. The All Share total return was a dismal -2% but that was due
almost entirely to all the mining sectors taking a severe hammering. Banks were
lousy as well and the grandly named Fixed-Line index (just Telkom in disguise)
destroyed more than 8% of shareholder wealth. With a few exceptions the
industrials board had a good month. Are they taking a cue from the US numbers
which are starting to show that nation climbing out of recession?
Numbers geeks have had plenty to play with. Principally of course was
the Budget, which is a lot more than a speech for the parliamentarians to sleep
through. Behind the words are several telephone-book sized documents stuffed
with figures. Also there was the quarterly release of GDP data which spawns half
a dozen schedules crammed with numbers. And just recently was the monthly trade
data, not to mention the various inflation figures (one of which has been
delayed for the astonishing reason that Stats SA believes that the Budget will
distract us from giving sufficient care and attention to their lovingly
prepared statistic!)
Before going on to unpick and carp about some of the developments
revealed in this avalanche of data and promises, it is worth remarking how
astonishingly open, transparent and efficient this country is at publishing
most of its financial data. Within seconds of Minister Pravin trotting up to
the microphone, the National Treasury website opens its doors and everything is
there, from the text of the entire speech to the colour pamphlets in several
languages. All the data are available in friendly instantly downloadable
formats for us to ferret through. It is a commendable and praiseworthy aspect
of our government and grievously at odds with all the secrecy that shrouds so
much else that the state feels too embarrassed to tell its citizens.
The number that has caused the greatest reaction was the trade data
which confirmed that our demand for imported goods far outweighs anything we
can find to sell to foreigners. This news has given the currency a hiding which
will just make all fuel and fripperies we want even more costly. The GDP growth
number was unsurprisingly disappointing but still no one will point out that
this comes despite the ever growing heap of supervision, guidance and regulation
that the largely clueless bureaucracy pile on top of the wealth and job
creators. Why don’t they just try not telling people what to do and how to do it
and see what happens?
The budget was welcome in that no boats were rocked except for the
lefties who as we speak must be throwing darts at the minister’s picture. His
virtually unavoidable slowdown in the “rob-the-rich” tactic will infuriate the socialists
who insist that government will always spend money more wisely than the people
who earned it. Not only are they wrong
but also annoying is their inability to grasp how few really rich folk there
are compared to the numbers who believe their government owes them a living. There
has been no shortage of grave analysis of the announcements to which I have
little to add beyond wondering why the price of Scotch in the “duty-free” doesn’t
seem to reflect the fact that the duty on a bottle is now almost R40. I also
think the Minister is in cloud-cuckoo land if he thinks that because the civil
servants last year agreed to multi-year wage settlements that there won’t be
any fuss this strike season.
Scepticism and embarrassment are the main emotions caused by the
Kings’ fine victory in the Super 15 opening match which placed them at the top
of the local conference log. Disappointment follows the news that the world-beating
Proteas will not have another test match for eight month. Something wrong with
that calendar.
James Greener
St David’s Day 2013
