A certain amount of excitement has broken out among the rent-a-quote
analysts, some are confident that the current bull market has a long and
healthy future. Of course I don’t know if this is so but it may be worth
pointing out that the PE ratio of the Financial & Industrial index (i.e the
All Share index less the capricious mining and resource shares) has just set a
multi-year high of 18. Obviously within that grouping there are shares with
ratios that are both higher and lower, but that does look like high-risk
territory to me.
First impression for those who unwisely switched on the TV last
night was that the SABC was broadcasting a sort of weigh-in session for an
upmarket weight-loss club. It turned out to be a gathering of the great and
good to listen to President Zuma deliver the poorly-named State of the Nation
address. Most of the rest of the nation who did not get an invitation to waddle
up the red carpet would have imagined a shortish speech, along the lines of
“pretty dire” or “rather dodgy” would have sufficed. However, the president
instead used several thousand words to complain that he and his cronies need
more money to carry out their plans and that it was from us they were going to get
it. The actual details of the mugging methods will be revealed in Minister
Gordhan’s Budget speech about 10 days off. This writer thinks that the
communists that infest government will be influential in crafting a severe
budget that will target anyone who dares to make more profits or acquire more
assets than approved of by the comrades.
There is a delightful irony in the protests against imposing tolls
on the new roads around Joburg. The collection method relies upon being able to
identify each vehicle passing a toll point rather than the more usual toll
plaza where drivers (generally) have to stop and fork out the moolah. In order
to collect the fees therefore, the tolling authority is supposing many things.
These include the presence of a valid or indeed any number plate on every vehicle,
that the number on the plate is linked to a valid postal address, that their
administration and the post office will not drown in the task of despatching tens
of thousands of notices daily and finally that vehicle owners will take a blind
bit of notice if and when they get the toll fee invoice. Ignoring traffic fines
could easily replace wrestling as a widely enjoyed Olympic sport here in SA.
The reason for not using an extra fuel levy to finance these new roads is probably
that revenue raised in this way (like almost all special imposts) disappears
into the government’s general revenue fund from where a long list of fiercely
argued and higher priority spending needs will loot it long before the road
maintenance team can claim their share.
We all wish the SA Mathematics Foundation every success in raising
the money they need to host the International Mathematical Olympiad in South Africa.
Their gamble in taking an eye-catching full page advert must pay off. It
reveals with polite sorrow that the government (which has just poured
unimaginable millions into the black hole of a soccer tournament) is unable to
provide them with any funds. Surely private donors will now come forward to
fill the professors’ very modest needs? Let’s hope that the Foundation totally
refuses to let any minister or state representative anywhere near the
proceedings and especially the catered receptions next year until they have
passed a test which includes long division without a calculator.
Last weekend they swam. This weekend they paddle. It’s a
never-ending fit fest here in the kingdom. The second cricket test against Pakistan is
developing into a good contest and the Lions beat the Kings despite the
appearance of some interesting names in the PE side. There must have been big cheques
changing hands.
James Greener
15th February 2013
