Now why has the JSE All Share backed off from its assault on that 36
000 level? The talking heads are never
afraid to offer a reason for every move in any market. Some of us are less certain but the spells of
quite marked rand weakness might indicate that some overseas players have
abandoned the ship. Mainly it has been the mining shares which continue to be
battered. Here and there some banks are also being sold off. Presumably there
is a concern that the “unsecured lending growth” story is once again grabbing
headlines. It is hard to believe that after all the bad publicity about poor
lending policies all over the world that our local fellows are not keeping a
beady eye on the loan portfolio. Of course the politicians and hotheads are
always bouncing around demanding that “the poor” be given stuff – this week it
was the smart houses in Cape Town
– but on the whole one has to hope that most folk acknowledge that debts have
to be repaid.
More worrying is the rather unexpected second quarter GDP growth of
3.2%pa that was published this week. While still a disappointing number, it was
unexpectedly high. However, careful reading of the fine print revealed a
clearly maverick result for the mining sector that was grievously distorting the
overall result upwards.. True growth was obviously well below the published
number and the vital manufacturing sector continues to contract. Like the
nation’s savers, the founders and operators of small businesses are wondering
why government seems unwilling to leave them alone. There was in fact scant
reason to be cheered by the GDP numbers and share market bears can find plenty
to feed their prejudices.
Reasons are also in good supply from the US where all kinds of stuff is
happening. In particular there is interest about what the Fed Governor Bernanke
may or may not say in his quaintly named Jackson Hole
address. Will he resume his policy of printing money for the government to
spend? And then there has been the contest between a storm named Isaac and a
politician named Mitt who wants to be the next US president, for who could generate
the most publicity. By the way, Mitt has a running mate, Paul, who has drawn up
a list things he thinks the government ought not be paying for. This rather
unusually forthright view from someone seeking election has caused a great deal
of anger amongst those who have become used to spending other people’s money.
The “American Way”
is one of the forecast casualties of such an idea. This election might be quite entertaining
after all.
How’s this for a wonderful example of bureaucratic disdain for mere
citizens. It is a job advertisement for a Director of Economic Regulation (and
there are a whole host of alarm bells right there) in Abu Dhabi. The second line promises an
“attractive six figure tax free salary”. But there is no mention of what
currency this might be paid in! Somehow I doubt that 100 000 in SA Rands is the
figure in mind. Even tax free that won’t buy you much in Abu Dhabi
Working for a global wealth
consultancy sounds like a fun job. The latest publication claims to identify
the nation’s multi-millionaires and where they live. Durban allegedly has the second highest
number of people in the land worth more than R240m.The fellows at the bowling
club this evening will be looking round the bar and wondering! Apparently this
information will be used to “inform brands and companies globally where to open
businesses if they want to target the richest of the rich”. Doubtless the
nation’s tax collectors and other thieves will also be looking for copies of
this useful work.
The ‘bokke are in trouble and the Lions are on top of the log. The
rugby bosses see nothing wrong.
James Greener
31st August 2012
