The country will pretty much close down at 2pm today and wont notice or care if the Dow collapses and the gold price soars to the levels where they equal each other. The odds of those two prices approaching and meeting each other are probably lower than what you will get for Bafana lifting the trophy and yet the nation is wonderfully and firmly convinced that miracles can happen. It is going to be great fun anyway and we shall all be quite safe as I have just seen a submarine glide past on its way to check the beach next to the stadium. I hope it was one of ours.
World Cup fever is rampant and party time is here. The vuvuzelas are droning on everywhere and how FIFA must be regretting that they failed to get their sticky paws on the rights to that plastic tube and also to that other unique South African attitude to a safety item – the makapara. This must be the only place in the world where the hard hat has been converted to a fashion item with zero safety . And don’t forget the Jabulani. That’s the new football that will be in use during the tournament and which allegedly behaves erratically, especially in the thin highveld air. Perhaps it will liven things and with luck more than a few goals might be scored in the tournament. Us rugby bores like a scoreboard that ticks over..
The world’s markets are also very erratic with no trends emerging anywhere. On the JSE this month so far, the big 4 (BAT, SAB, Anglo, Billiton) are all up but the rest of the market is very mixed with the banks still being sold off, despite FirstRand offering an optimistic trading statement. Value is still elusive. I am in no hurry yet for the SWC circus to end but it is going to be very interesting to see what the effect of playing hosts will have on the various indicators. The rand might be the first to react to the departing hordes. Some consumer prices appear to have risen while others appear unaffected or even lower. It will be difficult and a long time before anyone will be able to tease out the contribution to GDP that 6 years of preparation and 4 weeks of party have injected. The Gautrain seems like a fine legacy even if we are going to be left with some large and empty stadiums. It is claimed that a big part of Greece’s current troubles are the roosting of loan chickens that were sent off to raise money for that country’s Olympic Games. Certainly here in SA the state has been borrowing a lot of money of late so we will need to keep an eye on the repayment schedules in a few years time.
The politicians just don’t get it do they? The auditor general, the minister of finance and even I have been urging them to cut back on unnecessary spending. But this week the Free State government have been placing full page four colour advertisements boasting about holding a conference that will unlock the potential of their flat cold slice of land. This is about as meaningful as a CEO promising to unlock value. The recently departed and unlamented Eskom chief did just that when he pocketed a chunky performance bonus for the year when that business made a loss. The Telkom boss is also on his way. Lock the cash box tightly chaps.
Tucked in among the noise is a very important test for the ‘bokke in Cape Town tomorrow. The French have even more capacity than the Welsh showed last week to deliver a scare. Again I am uneasy. It is all happening under that mountain this weekend. Actually, there is quite a lot happening on the beach here too.
James Greener
11th June 2010.
