News and market reaction this week swung wildly from Woo Hoo moments (allegedly less American were looking for a job) to End of the World stuff (the PIGS will sink us all). These and all other claims are based on the infamous numbers that are churned out endlessly by institutions and organisations all of whom assure us that their credibility and reputation remains undoubted. Very few of us bother to ferret around in the fine print and disclaimers which specify the assumptions, conditions, and caveats that accompany the bald and naked number that the politician has seized on to prove his or her amazing skill in organising a party in a pump room. PIGS, by the way, is the snooty acronym for those allegedly decadent and spendthrift nations that fringe the southern edge of Europe. Portugal, Italy …
Sceptics of the declining US jobless figure pointed to the fact that it routinely counts only folk who had actually tried to find employment and that the unprecedented snow falls of late had probably discouraged many from doing that. Hence the welcome drop in the number of unemployed Americans. Back home it was claimed that the presidential promise of creating half a million jobs in the second half of 2009 was 97% successful. This too sounds like a snow job.
Speaking of snow, why isn’t anyone complaining that the US is not fit to host the winter Olympics. Their organisation is obviously poor. The only place in the country not buried under feet of the stuff is the place where the games begin tonight. There is definitely no snow here in the kingdom either. I have spent most of the week hull-down in the pool with a crisp Castle quart in the ice bucket on the paving nearby. My hippo-like behaviour was occasioned by the long awaited rise in temperature and humidity that saw me donning the sarong and bathing costume in obedience to the saying that there is no such thing as bad weather, it is just a case of having suitable clothing.
Totting up the recent company announcements and trading statements here on the JSE, revealed a small majority that could be classified as optimistic and so the All Share managed to hang on around the 26 000 level. Among the bad news stories was the one from Anglo Platinum who announced a rights issue to raise around R12bn. That’s a lot of money, but since the share price has been under quite a lot of pressure in the past few weeks the news was obviously not unexpected.
Minster Gordhan delivers his first budget speech next week and I think it may have quite a few nasty surprises in store. Unlike Trevor Manuel, he does not have a long-established jovial Mr Nice Guy image to maintain and I think he may be short on laughs and sound bites in other languages as he sticks it to us good and hard. He knows that he has little hope in getting the huge and growing crowds of tax eaters to exercise any restraint but he does know pretty much where all the taxpayers live and how much money they have. So guess who he will address?
The cricket test result from Nagpur was a sheer delight and I look forward to the Eden Gardens encounter. My impression of that venue, however, is that there always seem to be people making fires in the stands; a practice which is even less friendly than that repertoire-challenged brass band that sometimes turns up at St Georges. With the Super 14 now underway, Lions’ fans have to decide whether to go to Ellis Park or the High Court building where so much of the action still seems to be happening. I wonder what is the sense of forcing a player to run on to the field in a jersey he so clearly does not want to wear?
James Greener
12th February 2010.
