It is rather difficult to get a clear view of the markets down here in the kingdom this week. There is a miasma of tension drifting over the city as the first test between the ‘bokke and the Lions looms. Biltong and beer futures are a sure bet with cane and Coke not far behind.
It will also be hard not to let anticipation of the weekend’s many sporting fixtures dominate this comment.
The effective working week of about three days provided few memorable market movements. One of those strange “insiders-only welcome” close-out events took place and did nothing to reverse what I think is a bearish tone that is starting to tinge most sectors. Another round of reporting season is creeping up on us and a majority of the trading statements are warning that earnings are slowing. The retail sales numbers for April were dire and a lack of exports is keeping pressure on the current account
My doubt about the sustainability of the share price recoveries since March is getting greater. Even if the news is reporting slower rates of decline in the some statistics like employment and house prices, the numbers are still of course getting worse. Most of the world’s talking heads (with the notable exception of my fellow scientist Chancellor Merkel of Germany) are wittering on about bailouts and rescuing ducks so lame that drowning is the kindest option. Back home about the only claims for public money seem to be some state run and owned organizations and the investors in one or two spectacular non-investment schemes. Of course there many organizations which if not exactly asking for the stuff for themselves have a strong opinion about what should be happening to it. Because most of their members are mired in debt, the unions insist that if Governor Mboweni won’t lower interest rates then they would like to choose someone for the job who will. Never short of ideas, the workers’ representatives also went on about regulating and monitoring capital flows and even muttered about the strength of the currency.
Not to be left out of the game of making confusing economic statements, the Cabinet sent Spokesman Maseko out to the front room to declare that “cabinet is not calling for a reduction in the price of tickets” (to Confederations Cup matches) but that “… ministers believe that tickets should be offered free, especially to young people.” No definition of young was offered but the ability to enjoy the buzz of a vuvuzela is essential. Mind you, this does demonstrate that the Cabinet has a better grasp than the fellows running SA rugby that seat prices determine match attendances.
The list of things that one may not take to Kings Park tomorrow includes plastic trumpets, weaponry and outdated flags. Vexillological Association secretary Berry in a letter to the papers points out that so far during the Confederations Cup tournament several outdated versions of the Iraqi flag have been on display (that nation is on its third flag in half a dozen years) and that the presence of the All White New Zealanders as antipodean champions has sometimes been marked by the Australian flag. Not to worry Mr. Berry. Bafana Bafana beat them anyway. Go ‘bokke. Go Bafana. Go Button. Go home Proteas.
James Greener
19th June 2009.
