THE GOVERNMENT IS INVITED TO FOLLOW ON

I am becoming increasingly lonely. Not, let me hasten to say because I am all alone at my desk with a harbour master’s view of the shipping approaching Durban harbour. But because my views and opinions these days seem to locate me firmly in opposition to most prevailing trends.

For example I am still quite sure that the bear is not yet finished with the world’s equity markets despite the rather exciting bounce that most exchanges have enjoyed since the multi-year lows recorded just two months ago. Perhaps the fact that the JSE has achieved about the smallest recovery of any, may be because it was waiting for the outcome of the election. But the rand has been suffering no such doubts. It is now at a three year high versus sterling. I have noted before that money must be flowing onto the country. Can the World Cup be having an effect already? Here in the kingdom we are not hosting any Confederations Cup matches so maybe the excitement is passing me by.

Politically I have never been anywhere other than in opposition to the governing party. I believe that only the threat of losing their seat on the gravy train has any influence on those in power. This week’s election result has revealed the disturbing fact that the smallest ever proportion of voters is dissatisfied with what the current clutch of politicians are providing in the way of government. By the time of the next election in five years the present regime will have been in charge for almost half as long as the previous bunch but I am sure that we will still hear the legacy word being trotted out when blame needs to be laid. Mere improbability has never stopped a politician from claiming anything.

Two more public holidays and long weekends are upon us and I would guess that not a great deal will happen in the last three days of the month. What the bureaucrats can quite rightly claim, however, is that at least two of the holidays in April were not of their making. In fact they predate most regimes around the world. It has been a dreadful month for those who need to cover the overheads but reportedly retail activity has not been seriously disrupted by all these breaks. Unlike many years ago the pubs and bottle stores were thankfully open on polling day and a roaring trade was recorded. The victors had some serious partying to attend to.

Only a few companies are reporting lower earnings and reduced dividends. There is little evidence to prompt anyone to join me out on the lonely limb of concern that we are in for a long and deep recession. In the UK the government has responded to declining revenues with a budget notable for some fierce tax increases, some of which were disguised as punishment for cheeky bankers. Considerably more folk than the allegedly greedy City types are going to feel the pain of keeping civil servants in employment, tea and biscuits. As one press report noted, the fashion a few years ago of taking one’s company off to London for a listing may be turning out to be less beneficial than anticipated for the executives.

My grasp of Indian geography has been improved by the presence of the IPL on our cricket pitches. I am also fascinated by the market anomalies that are showing up where player performance is not being matched by their pre-tournament pricing. And have you watched some of the team owners juggling several cell phones at once presumably trying to keep in touch with the bookies?

James Greener

24^th April 2009.