Judging from the way that the turnover on the JSE has soared every time the All Share index has tried to break below the 18 000 level, it seems that folk believe that this number is somewhere near the worst the bear can do. I will be surprised if this is the case. I believe that sellers will outnumber buyers for still some time yet. I think there is widespread denial and misunderstanding of just how severe the economic situation in the USA has become and that it may get even worse. Next I think that there is also an unrealistic hope that there are other countries and people able to pick up the slack and create demand to replace the faltering US consumer. And then finally I regret that the campaigning for next month’s general election back here is providing too many opportunities for our alleged and hopeful leaders to expose their shortcomings to the world and scare off investors.
One splendid example of this emerged this week when a candidate reportedly stated that “… businesses should be urged to hire (staff)” I trust that someone has now taken her aside to explain that in the real world one hires a staff member only if the extra revenue that could be generated by the new pair of hands will leave a profit after all the costs of that new person are accounted for. Only in government is headcount a growth target. Next up we were treated to a lecture about carbon footprints and climate change by a man whose science training may be limited to virus control by showering. And then there was the cabinet minister who implied that her department regards her either as too untrustworthy or too dim to reveal the workings of the new passport to her.
In almost every category except crime and tax collection (more or less identical endeavours) South Africa is moving down the world ranking tables. Even our shot at getting to number 1 in test cricket is not going very well. And we are pretty hazy when it comes to diagnosing health conditions for parole.
Actually we must be very near the best in the world when it comes to bank stability and solvency. All the big boys have now announced and there were no really bad surprises (like losing a few billion dollars between now and when they last tried to buy a corporate jet). Overseas, some bright spark has come up with an idea to subject applicants for public handouts to “stress testing”. My view is that this will be a pointless exercise as in effect the market does that automatically and all the time. Don’t give anyone one any public money and the survivors will be the ones that pass the test! Those that fail at least will do so without taking the taxpayers money into the black hole along with themselves.
At the airport last night I noticed that the screen that displays the day countdown to kick-off in the soccer world cup was blank. There are several possible explanations for this but it is ominous that the cabinet found time to discuss the problem that so far very few locals appear to have bothered to apply for tickets for many of the matches. In our inimitable way we are all doubtless expecting that in order to avoid embarrassment of empty stadiums, the organisers will on the day call rent-a-mob, who for the price of a tee-shirt, cap and a Coke (sorry, Pepsi) will ship in people to cheer for Croatia or wherever. The mobs will be in great need of employment by then because their present deployment in disrupting university classes, trashing meeting venues and threatening opposition voters will have come to an end.
These early morning games from the other side of the world have good and bad sides. Surfers miss the early waves but the pubs open for breakfast. The Lions had better take advantage of their bye weekend. Practice is needed!
James Greener
6th March 2009.
