There can be little doubt that our very own presidential inauguration later this year will be a whole lot more fun and colourful than what we watched in Washington this week. The musical items will definitely be jollier with the president himself doubtless joining in for the choruses. He might even be excited (and unwise) enough to launch into a solo piece about the delivery of automatic weapons. I have yet to grasp Zulu praise singing, so unfortunately the poetry reading will be just as impenetrable. Women’s hats will surely be more numerous, larger and spectacular and the weather in Pretoria should be warm enough to allow for the wearing of both sharp and furry bits of various traditional wildlife species. The platform, however, will not be large enough to accommodate the president’s immediate dependants, which is probably just as well as it will avoid unseemly squabbles about precedence, such as who gets to hold the bible.
The inaugural address at the Union Buildings while not as polished will leave me just as sceptical. There are such impossibly high expectations of what the man in the top spot will achieve that even modest fulfilment of their promises will cause huge disappointment. Their intentions, whether explicit or implied, of carrying out socialist programs of redistributing wealth are going to be very hampered by the rapid disappearance of the alleged wealth and the supposedly wealthy as the recession bites. The US version is particularly odd as many of those laying claim to the handouts were previously wealthy anyway and their downfall and rescue can surely not be the responsibility of the taxpayers and their grandchildren? Is it true that some of the banks who are receiving these bail-out packages are still awarding bonuses to the staff that managed to lose them all the money in the first place? In my day stock broking just didn’t work that way. Anyone who did not put the client’s interest first – and that meant not taking positions for the firm or oneself ahead of the client – was out of the door as soon as it was discovered; even and perhaps especially if there was a profit in the trade. There is much to be said for agency-only dealing in this business.
The trickle of company reports and trading statements is growing every day and with just one exception, there have been no absolute shockers. Earnings growth is generally modestly positive. The puzzling one was a short term insurer who cautioned that earnings could be as much as 120% down. Does this rather unusual maths mean that they are expecting to report a loss 20% as big as last year’s profits?
The markets seem to be inclined to think, as I do, that bad earnings numbers are inevitable and most indices are searching for the bottom. This makes investing very frustrating as what seems like an excellent purchase one day looks pretty silly a week later. Nevertheless, because I know that neither I nor most people will be able to spot the actual bottom, let alone do all my buying there, I continue to suggest a program of top-ups in periods of weakness, like now.
It now seems that suspicion is falling on a member of the SAA cabin crew being responsible for trying to smuggle at least 50kg of Transkei Gold into England. Now I battle to handle my legitimate 20kg suitcase, how did this lass manage with more than double that amount? This is one stewardess that you would not argue with when it came to getting another drink.
The ODI series is developing satisfactorily. Why have the Aussies adopted camo green for their outfits? I hope the umpires are checking that there are just 11 of them in the field.
James Greener
23rd January 2009.
