Without packing a single suitcase, I have the feeling that I am now living in a country very different from the one I had expected and hoped for when we moved to the Rainbow Nation nearly twenty years ago. It is not that I have left my country but rather that my country has left me. I once read this sentiment written by a US citizen and I now believe it deserves resuscitation for my own experience. Almost nothing remains of the moderately effective services that one expects a government to deliver. In my country there appears not to be a single state or official organisation where the people in charge have the faintest idea of what they should be doing to earn the money we pay them. In some departments, their policies seem to be designed to deliberately reduce and even destroy what already exists to the detriment of every citizen. Compounding this dreadful state of affairs is the torrent of abuse, denial and outright lies that pour forth when even the mildest questioning or criticism is raised. I watched in stunned amazement the ceremony of apology unfold in Australia early this week. But it made me wonder whether the descendants of our current rulers will one day kneel down in front of my great grandchildren and apologise for what their own ancestors did to this country in the early 21st century.
Although many of us are currently submerged in this trough of bleak depression, it has not stopped the rest clamouring to buy shares on the JSE. Judging by the continuing weakness of the rand, the supply of shares is still coming from offshore. There have been some rather downbeat assessments of the SA situation on prominent overseas TV stations.
Reporting season is now well underway and about two dozen companies published results this week. So far, only a few of the numbers are really disappointing and they came from the mining counters, most of whom are reporting rapidly rising costs. Remember that these figures cover a period before the power cuts began. It is sadly ironic that because of declining mining production, the prices of the minerals are shooting upwards and yet the mines themselves seem unable to capitalise on the bonanza. This is a very difficult sector in which to find stocks to buy.
The trigger for a very welcome price surge in markets world-wide mid-week was the news that Mr Buffet, allegedly the planet’s most skilful investor, had offered truck loads of cash to help bail out one of America’s most recently damaged financial sectors. Unsurprisingly, of course, the small print in the offer revealed that he wished to buy just those parts of the so-called monoline insurance industry that were old, dull, boring and profitable. He was not interested in the parts of the businesses that dealt with things that neither he, nor anyone else it seems, understood. Disappointment has followed the discovery of this condition to the offer.
A little incident reinforced my attitude of sceptical amusement towards the efforts of the “proper” analysts. It was the upgrade of a share from a “sell” to a “hold” recommendation. Now, if the clients have dutifully followed the earlier “sell” advice, just what was it now they were supposed to “hold”? I have licence to mock. I used to write that stuff too.
Super 14 is upon as again. Oh dear. There was a time when I thought I would have to be a Sharks supporter this year, but it looks as if I can remain with the Lions. But will they remain with me?
James Greener
15th February 2008
