A cynical commentary about developments in the South African financial and political scene and the incomprehensible activities and pronouncements of bureaucrats and politicians.
Friday, 27 August 2021
TV CRIME SOLVED
Brand new Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana’s first piece of legislation bears the ominous name of the Second Special Appropriation Bill. And it needs to be akin to magic. He must conjure up almost R33bn to pay for Covid-19 relief grants, soldiers’ deployment and support for the government’s all-risk insurer, SASRIA. Anecdotal evidence about claims on the last-named mendicant, arising from the looting frenzy, suggest this will not be quickly resolved. Just two months ago Enoch’s predecessor, Chef Tito, launched a similar cry for help. Soon thereafter he quit. He knew this larger call was inevitable. The sole bright and entertaining news concerns the looted TV sets which the manufacturer can disable remotely, just as soon as the screen is connected to the internet. Theft-proof TVs? Now there’s a thing.
The staff who work at the offices of the ANC political party have not received salaries for a couple of months. These workers are now on strike but unfortunately for their sacrifices few outside of their bubble will notice or care. Reportedly the ANC still owes the taxman the PAYE deductions. Private sector employers are painfully aware that the tax man takes a very dim view of this practice! The great attraction of landing a job on these fringes of the least productive sector of the economy, is the possibility of discovering a cozy niche overlooking a strong and steady cashflow into which one can on occasion dip a sticky finger. Despite this and other ploys from the text book on state capture, the dire unemployment situation is affecting both rank and file members as well as senior ruling party cadres. The most prominent of these is no less than previous President Zuma, who this week released a glossy begging letter complete with bank account number for anyone who feels like helping out the old fellow. How humiliating for a man who once rubbed shoulders with some of the sleaziest conmen ever to have left India. Presumably the Guptas no longer take calls from Jacob.
Our deputy president David Mabuza is a disappointing fellow. He seems to think that he has been the victim of poisoning attempts on several occasions. And presumably as a result, doesn’t trust anyone very much. For example, he chooses to go to Russia for medical treatment whenever he feels a bit off colour. He was no sooner back from his latest check up there when one out of the six generating units at the Medupi power station exploded. Its not known if he was scheduled to go and take a look at this shiny new piece of Eskom kit but it is reported that he feels that this failure rate represents a “fair” outcome. Really? So every sixth bridge, plane and high-rise must be treated with caution? Wow.
The folk over at Stats SA have been having a great deal of fun playing with the nation’s GDP numbers. This week they published a whole new way of classifying and counting the figures. This revealed an economy about 11% larger than we thought, but still behind Nigeria and Egypt. In Stats SA’s own words there has been little time to inspect “under the hood” to see what the changes mean to our understanding, but both Education and Health have been reclassified as Personal Services instead of Government. This has the effect of vastly reducing the apparent share that the state has in the economy. Hmmmm? Curiously the growth rates -- the period to period change in the overall GDP number -- are little affected by the reclassifications but do remember all the sums are done with a data set that is entirely restated in the new bases.
It has been decided that the half dozen tests outstanding in the northern hemisphere-baiting named Rugby Championship will all be played in Queensland. This is the Australian state that has just announced the creation of a concentration quarantine camp in the outback for unhealthy people suspected of being capable of passing on the Delta Variant of the Corona Virus. Can these events be a mere coincidence? Few predicted that the clash between people and their politicians would reach its climax in the calendar of sports fixtures.
James Greener
Friday 27th August 2021
Friday, 20 August 2021
GOODNESS. I DIDN’T REALISE THAT!
The US dollar is almost at a one year high against the Euro. Does this signify a (grudging) admiration for the developments that President Biden has enabled to unfold in Afghanistan? For what seems like a declining number of us, schooled in post-World War II western mores and scientific tradition, this is alarming. The world appears to prefer ignorance and superstition to enlightenment and rationality. Sloganeering and cruelty have become the tools of those who wield influence and power over the lives of anyone still naïve enough to believe that treating everyone with dignity and respect is worthwhile.
President Cyril’s recent appearance at the Zondo Commission of enquiry into State Capture raised a few basic questions, in addition to the obvious ones like “What did Cyril know and when did he know it?” His display of utter astonishment when he was told about what was happening all around him when he held posts as high as the Vice Presidency was worthy of an acting award. Maybe, like most of us, he was at the outset puzzled about what exactly state capture is. But it is ludicrously simple and so widespread that it really ought to be granted a place in the summer Olympics. It is merely the act of stealing state assets and exercising executive powers for personal gain.
Astonished feigned ignorance is a major tool in Frogboiler’s kit for running this country. It is hard to believe that a man running an enterprise for 60 million souls and a turnover in the trillions. i.e. South Africa, doesn’t make use of the current equivalent of a “cuttings service”. This would supply regular stacks of highlighted stories, articles, and scurrilous rumour in digestible form to even a presidential iPad. Maybe he would gain an inkling about what is happening in the country, and what people other than his sycophants, think of him. The numerous state departments with the word “Intelligence” in their titles seem to be useless. Presumably they were the ones who instructed Cyril that last month’s riots were an “insurrection. But according to minister of Defence and Military Veterans Nosiviwe Mapisa-Nqakula, the events were a “counter-revolution”. Her reward for putting him right was that this week he promoted her to Speaker of the House.
The theory and methods of saving for retirement are very well known and documented. It’s why there are actuaries. This week the Department of Social Development behaved as if they had discovered the Higgs Boson’s little brother and announced an utterly impossible new defined benefit scheme for the whole country. This 30% school pass mark thing is going to destroy us all!
One of the less discussed events of the looting and arson session last month was the torching of an inconspicuous warehouse in Cornubia, a development on Durban’s northern fringes. Almost immediately people began to complain of a terrible smell and even some respiratory problems caused by a plume of noxious fumes drifting from the warehouse which in fact burned for several days. In addition, it turned out that the fire containment efforts had filled the site’s drains with effluent which, presumably in defiance of rafts of regulation, flowed into the estuary at Umghlanga Rocks and soon a complete extinction of all marine life in the lagoon and shoreline was reported. The beaches in the area remain closed. This is an environmental catastrophe of the highest order and only the efforts of a team of investigative journalists have managed to keep the story alive. The unanswered questions continue to grow, especially as this week finally saw the release of what was in that warehouse. While few countries will have a legislature capable of fully understanding the dangers resulting from a chemical spill, and toxic chemicals are a murky secretive business, it might prove useful to put a few people including perhaps complicit local officials behind bars to jog their memories. It’s too late for the fish and birds.
Last weekend’s victory by South African Brad Binder in a rain affected Moto GP was epic. Presumably growing up in in Potchefstroom he learned to ride in those Highveld torrential thunderstorms.
James Greener
Friday 20th August 2021
Friday, 13 August 2021
TEE-OFF TIME
What this nation needs to do is to find a wayto remove from all elected officials and their attending bureaucrats the power to do almost everything. In particular they must be banned from renaming things and shopping for cars unless paid for by themselves. As one clever fellow has already commented; he is sure that Winnie Mandela saw her legacy as being far grander than to be attached to a rather disappointing dorpie in the Free State. A particularly annoying development in the last few years is the renaming of municipalities and districts after deceased worthies. Losing any indication of just whereabouts the place being discussed may be in this large and beautiful land has been an unnecessary cost and inefficiency burden. While certainly achieving its primary objective of irritating old white people, it is doubtful if it has raised the profile or historical significance of the honourees in any way. The world is funny like that. The most recognisable t-shirt decoration on the planet is the face of a long dead deeply unpleasant Marxist revolutionary who didn’t really make anyone’s existence much happier.
It feels as if we are being treated to a rerun of the Schabir Shaik comedy show. This was when Jacob Zuma’s spectacularly incompetent alleged financial advisor was released from jail after being convicted of fraud in 2005. It was claimed that he was terminally ill, and it would show great compassion if he could be released to let him run his life’s short course in the bosom of his family. It turned out that the consulting medics were referring to a golf course and the diagnosed deadly disease has responded to this treatment magnificently. Zuma has obviously taken advice from his old chum and has also now obtained a medical opinion which has released him from his prison cell where he has about a dozen months of his sentence for contempt of court still to run. A puzzling aspect of our previous president’s circumstances is that despite having a large extended family of wives and offspring, all news about his condition is jealously and secretly handled by The Jacob Zuma Foundation (an educational organisation). It is therefore unknown if he has yet purchased a set of golf clubs.
Mere days after some sort of ludicrous handing-over milestone by the contractors to Eskom (the owner and operator) of the near decade-overdue Medupi power station, a big section of it blew up! Fortunately, no one was injured – maybe because there were no qualified staff around at the time? But the news has been delivered with sorrowful downcast head shaking and the equally ludicrous claim that it won’t have much effect on the nation’s power supplies. Sadly, given the incredible cost overrun of this project this is not a case of saying “Well, you get what you paid for.” For some reason information and data flows from Eskom appear to the layman at least, somewhat opaque and disingenuous. Fortunately, there are numerous highly experienced energy generation specialists with intimate knowledge of this State-Owned Enterprise keen to offer their views. But the fact is that this “Boom!” will have been noticed by everyone needing a stable electricity supply for their business investment location and they may as we speak be dropping S Africa from their list.
There is something reassuringly nostalgic and endearingly establishment about the name of Jolidee Matongo, the new mayor of Johannesburg. Not everyone will know or remember the phrase “Jolly d” delivered in a haughty and plummy tone to express satisfaction and encouragement. He is also not short of advice of what to do once established in the top floor corner office. Mine would include booting every mendicant and distant relative back into the street.
One particularly obvious lesson learned from the recent rugby test series is that stadia with pitches prepared for soccer are useless for the oval ball game. Even the most shameless footballer’s dive to feign injury does not have the same impact as 1800 kg and 32 studded boots thrusting away on the green sward. Doubtless this is well known amongst groundsmen the world over, but the sports are run by accountants who like the idea of multiple uses for the assets.
James Greener
Friday 13th August 2021 (International Left Hander’s Day)
Friday, 6 August 2021
SHOSHOLOZA!
President Cyril’s one way communication with us is getting tedious and a tad annoying. Perhaps it is because he doesn’t feel comfortable trying to work in English where he might correctly assume that questioners are trying to trip him up. Explaining the negative reaction by the rand to last night’s cabinet tinkering would not be easy for him. Similarly, discussing why he didn’t fire Bheki “The Hat” whose police force utterly failed to protect life and property in last month’s non-insurrection. is a topic he prefers to avoid.
His most significant shuffle is brought about by the retirement of Finance Minister Tito Mboweni who is replaced by Enoch Godongwana. There has been some frantic overnight scrambling through the cuttings files to try and work out Enoch’s likely stance on matters financial. The latest exchequer figures show that Tito might have just been starting to get to grips with government spending. It would be a pity to squander that momentum. In the meantime, let’s hope someone plants out little Aloe Ferox, now that it is no longer called upon to make a half-yearly trip to parliament to illustrate Tito’s budgetary dilemma.
There must have been singing and dancing in the corridors at National Treasury last weekend when they published that revenue for June 2021 was a record setting R205 billion. This is the largest amount in tax ever collected in a month and reportedly is due to bumper revenue for mining companies. Not everyone dislikes a weak currency. In the Expenditure Section however the celebrations will have been muted so as not to offend those who might be suffering from cutbacks in state handouts. Because that is what might just be happening. Year on year growth of the government’s 12 month spending pattern is now below 6%pa. This is low and frankly astonishing for a government whose most visible policy is to play Robin Hood for an ever-growing population of poor and unemployed.
The Post Office is rapidly warming to the idea of enforcing of regulations which reserves for them the transport and delivery of any parcel weighing less than 1 kg. Hot food deliveries are exempt if only to prevent piles of rotting pizza building up at the sorting offices over the weekends. The slow disintegration of the state-owned postal service has spawned a huge and highly competitive private courier industry that is essential to its very many customers. The impact on employment and commercial efficiency of this task reservation will be devastating but nevertheless the politicians and bureaucrats have managed to convince themselves that it will be best for everyone in the long run. Right. Let’s in future post to all civil servants their salaries in cash. Mind you some pay packages for that lot could exceed 1 kg!
What has happened to our sport? Are we all so absorbed in keeping body and soul together in the face of the consequences of our government’s handling of the Covid threat that we have no resources left to have fun and chase dreams? Many must have been discouraged and demoralised by the waves of unemployment followed by debilitating and incomprehensible mask and movement regulations. But other countries at the Olympics suffered too. That our male competitors and team sports fared particularly badly perhaps hints that state-encouraged racial selection criteria may have had an effect. There was however, one utterly amazing moment captured on video that should raise a tear in the eye of any still proud South African. It records the moment when the South African squad in Tokyo put on an ad hoc celebration for Gold Medallist Tatjana Schoenmaker. Politicians, watch this and crawl back under your stones. https://youtu.be/I4zMpGQswwM Copy and paste into your browser. Sniff.
Hopefully there will be no tears on our side after the final and crucial test against the B & I Lions in Cape Town tomorrow. It feels as if this has been a particularly ill-tempered on and off the field encounter but reports from the tourists are gratifyingly positive about their time down here on the southern tip.
James Greener
Friday 6th August 2021
Friday, 30 July 2021
NUMBER CRUNCHERS
One of the smouldering fires which could burst into serious flames as far as world markets are concerned is the shortage of chips of the electronic kind. Ever shrinking in size but gaining in complexity, these tiny scraps of electronic wizardry are so ubiquitous in our consumer lifestyle of things, that assembly lines of bigger items like cars, washing machines, space ships and of course our personal life support systems – mobile phones are being impacted There are of course numerous outfits who closely monitor the supply of these elements that most of us could not find on the periodic table, but if you want a carefree life don’t read their reports.
Seemingly there is such a word as digitalisation. It is clumsy and ugly. Using digital computers to store, process and share data has been around for more than half a century and one suspects that users of this relatively new word are rather hazy about what exactly it means. Politicians and others who don’t really know how most of the world works, frequently use the term as a process that can be blamed for their own failures and inefficiencies. The articles about the cyber attacks which reportedly are still impacting the operations of the nation’s ports are heavy with the term “digitalisation”. The word has offspring such as 4IR (Fourth Industrial Revolution) and 5G (fifth generation). The former has been declared “a good thing” while the latter has even been identified as being somehow responsible for the respiratory infection that has caused such a massive disruption to our way of life. Oh, and global warming too!
The banks have been counting the costs of the looting spree that the population entertained themselves with a week or two ago. Not only were almost 300 branches trashed but also about 1200 ATMs containing an estimated R20m in cash were broken into, sometimes even totally removed from the wall into which they had been built. The banks insist that ATMs are programmed to soak their stock of bank notes in a green dye if they sense the beginnings of a theft attempt. Further, they warn everyone that any bank note with a trace of the dye is valueless and that no one should accept such notes for any transaction. Oddly though, little has been reported about how much dyed currency they have retrieved. Perhaps a chemist has found a way to clean them. If only stealing and breaking stuff was an Olympic sport, our medal count in Tokyo would be far higher.
Presumably every nation indulges in a spell of introspection and review once their athletes return home, to determine why they did not do as well as forecast. Without any proper data to back the claim it still appears that government support plays a big role in a nation’s ranking on the medal table. Clearly the moral boost for a country able to greet even just one gold medallist on their return is worth the allocation of public money. What is less clear, however, is whether the so-called national costumes prepared for the athletes taking part in the opening ceremony provide as much pride and motivation as the designers claim. Our team’s attempt to rock the “veldskoen look” fell rather short, perhaps.
Nevertheless, for us couch potatoes this 4-yearly update of ways the fit and healthy spend their time is always an eye-opener. There are for example 7 ways each for women and men to earn a medal for crossing the finish line going backwards! The sailing events will see 10 medal ceremonies, which are, in these days of covid, rather joyless spectacles. There is noticeable growth in the number of events in which an individual puts on a display of self-absorbed narcissism but titanic athleticism in front of a jury who award points. Wheeled sports are also growing in popularity with a 13-year old on a skateboard being the youngest medal winner ever. And who knew what someone on a bicycle can achieve?
F1 returns this weekend but it feels as if something is going awry in The Paddock. Personal invective and touchy-feely sentiments are not useful in this supremely technical sport. At least no one has yet suggested replacing the bottles of bubbly with a nice bouquet of lovely flowers.
James Greener
Friday 30th July 2021.
Friday, 23 July 2021
BEDDING DOWN
The South African currency (ZAR) has lost a few percent in the last couple of weeks as the novelty of having an ex-president in jail gets discounted as just something most self-respecting Marxist regimes need to get used to. The Reserve Bank monetary policy think tank that met this week saw nothing to worry about and left interest rates unchanged. It’s bizarre to jot down the events of the week and juxtapose the normal and usual against the abnormal and astonishingly unexpected.
The government’s vacillation and ineffective original response to the widespread looting and lawlessness in two provinces was quite a surprise as many citizens had assumed that someone – in particular the police—would protect us. The swift and effective appearance of what has been called the civilian militia was gratifying for most but perhaps embarrassing for the state. Amongst its earliest reactions was a spat between President Cyril and his Defence Minister Nosiviwe Mapisa-Nqakula about how to describe the incidents. The president used the word insurrection. The Minister said this was incorrect because there were no identifiable instigators. But now there are.
But probably paying close attention was SASRIA. Which is a government owned re-insurer type of business founded in the early seventies when the riots of that time were feared to be too large for the local insurers to cope. Currently it sits on assets worth around R9 billion which is significantly less than the estimated costs of the damage. A shortfall looms. The latest score in this one is unknown. But the list of friends who are leaving the country before more bills and deaths mount up, gets even larger
Another thing we can’t influence, is the outcome about a succession dispute that has broken out among members of the Zulu royal family since King Zwelithini died a few months ago. With all the elements of a Shakespearean tragedy, costumed in leopard skin, this could run for ages before the final curtain. The principal prize is the real estate of Zululand, which is owned by a hastily conceived and executed Trust virtually hours before the 1994 election. The sole trustee is the late king. The current winners are going to be lawyers. Non- Zulus respectfully request to be absolved from picking up any costs for this one.
Reportedly the computer systems used to operate the harbours have been incapacitated by a cyber-attack. And the ports have closed. A ransom demand apparently has been made to the authorities whose quite possible and truthful response will be that they have no money. Even if they refer the extortionists to National Treasury, they too can do little but launch their usual emergency strategy of going through everyone’s pockets and feeling down the back of the couches in the visitor’s waiting room. From my position of assistant deputy self-appointed part-time harbour master, I can confirm that the number of ships loitering out in the ocean roadstead has risen a lot. Mind you those crews wouldn’t be able to buy a drink even if they could dock. Covid, you know.
Suppose they held a Games, and nobody came? One does have to feel very sorry for the Japanese. The only amusing story coming out of Tokyo concerns the cardboard beds being used in the Olympic Village. The bulky lads and lasses taking part are anxious, despite assurances that the beds have been tested for any eventuality. This need to recycle everything should have limits.
As are we all down here on the southern tip. Satellite pictures reveal an exceptional cold front about to hit the country. The B & I Lions might unfortunately find that to their liking in tomorrow’s Test
James Greener
Friday July 23rd 2021
Friday, 16 July 2021
LOOT RESPONSIBLY
This title is the behaviour guideline offered by Duduzane Zuma, who is one of ex-president Jacob Zuma’s nearly two dozen children. Presumably, he learned it at his father’s knee but quite what this instruction implies is unclear. Would it, for example, apply to a well-dressed man who arrives at Woolworths in a very smart car and saunters in to select a trolly load of tasty delicacies which he neglects to pay for? To be fair, the tellers had long since left their posts. Perhaps Duduzane is against the looting technique where ATMs are prized from the wall with a crowbar, presumably by someone who had forgotten their PIN. And then what about stealing TV sets and other appliances which are far too big to fit in a car and necessitate liberating a forklift to lug the goodies home? Surely its irresponsible not first to measure up your loot?
There are so many unrecorded tragedies, heart-warming alliances, unsolved conundrums and unexpected outcomes and developments emerging from this breakout of massive civil unrest and lawlessness. It is now only of historic interest to determine whether the flashpoint was the jailing of Zuma or President Cyril’s extension a few hours later of the punitive economic lockdown in the name of controlling the spread of Covid 19. This latter move is by far the most damaging for every citizen and the “enough is enough” attitude was widespread.
The majority of this week’s looting and arson have taken place in and around Durban within a few kms of Tidemarks’ own lookout. The hopelessly under-resourced police were overwhelmed and became incapable of effective response and so by Monday evening, ordinary citizens, many still young enough to recall their own days of conscription, set up and manned strategic roadblocks and street patrols. They have been successful since then in keeping the largely residential areas quiet and safe. The level of gun ownership in the suburb is both amazing and reassuring at times like this. Tidemarks has selected his heaviest walking stick whilst the well prepared are sharing ammo even with the police. Unsurprisingly for our times, a mobile phone app (Zello) that mimics walkie-talkie radios, appeared within minutes and honey-voiced ladies were soon co-ordinating operations. Lots of “roger this” and “copy that” has broken out.
Some commentators have become dewy eyed at the thought of and evidence for South Africans of every sort standing shoulder to shoulder in defence of their communities. As ever this nation’s capacity to behave unexpectedly has amazed us all. In the absence of formal supply lines operating and with stores failing to open, back-yard popups have appeared, with fresh produce “fetched from the farm this morning!” No one asks any questions.
As previously suggested by Tidemarks, the Minibus Taxi industry is probably the nation’s most significant power bloc, and the signs are appearing that they are largely on the side of returning to a rule of law. Encouraging. They too can’t find food, fuel or fares.
Almost as difficult to understand this weekend is just who will be playing where and when and even why. The B & I Lions apparently are unconcerned by the mayhem, presumably because it is no worse than facing a ‘bok scrum or getting mugged outside Wembley. The aerial pictures of Royal St Georges, venue for The Open, suggest that historians may have erred in telling us that there was no invasion of England during the second world war. Those pot bunkers are identical to shell holes. Then there will be the new F1 Sprint qualifying format at Silverstone where even the tyre allocation rules require legal opinion. As usual, by the end of the Tour de France, Tidemarks becomes infused with the idea of owning an E-bike and cruising gently down to the Ski Boat Club for a cold beer on warm and sunny days. The French race route this year looked brutal and the suggestion that pharmaceuticals may have been used is hardly surprising. All I’d have to worry about would be the battery running out.
James Greener
Friday 16th July 2021
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