MORE INCONSISTANT INSISTING

Two rather important prices in the global markets are declining. The first is the price of US 10-year bonds. The second is the price of a US dollar. The temptation is to attribute this to the growing realisation that the USA has elected a new president. One who tends towards the idea that government spends money more wisely than its individual citizens. After 4 years of a president who held the opposite view, buyers of instruments where the government has influence are perhaps holding back. The ladies and gentlemen of our Cabinet simply just don’t get it, do they? Whatever the reasons might be, including forces beyond their control, the amount of tax income coming into the National Treasury is much much less than they had been warned to expect. And yet they still spend. The latest rolling 12-month total revenue figure for government is R1.2 trillion. In and of itself this might not be a problem except that across the ministry corridor, in the section that dispenses the money for the state’s expenditure, the current equivalent figure is R1.8 trillion. Not only is this 50% greater than the income, it is also R340bn greater than two and a half years ago. In this period of severe recession, even before the virus appeared and our leaders laid waste to the economy, state expenditure annual growth has been north of 10%pa. Stop it ministers. Just stop it! The calamity inherent in these terrifying but simple facts fails to reflect that most civil servants have been largely even more unproductive since the Corona Virus sent them to work from home. This is the topic and his proposed solutions that we need urgently to hear addressed by President Cyril. Not only is this economic situation causing conditions that are starving more South Africans to death than ever the virus will kill, but his lack of vision and leadership is promoting the most egregiously stupid behaviour amongst certain members of this team. From beneath his hat the Minister of Police, Bheki Cele has ordered armed policemen on to beaches where only sparse groups of white folk are rapidly reddening in the sun. To do what? Presumably to protect the virus from being harmed. After all, that tiny bug has helped so many connected cadres collect carloads of cash that it’s worth protecting. In the meantime, the minister of transport has suggested that motorists sound their horns at noon everyday this holiday to remind us that people die in traffic accidents. The scuttlebutt on the internet is that we as a nation failed to make the payment to secure any doses of Covid vaccines. Arrangements are being made for the Solidarity Fund to come up with some cash but that will cover only 10% of our requirements. Allegedly the state itself has directed all its reserves towards the SAA bail-out. That’s classy governance! But fake news is a scourge in all these sorts of stories. Like the survey that South Africans spend more time sleeping than any nation on earth. This is undoubtedly wrong as everyone knows that we spend more time hanging about in queues than any other activity. Waiting for a government service rarely takes less than 2 hours, often because vital pieces of information about what you need or should have done prior to joining the line are only revealed as progress towards the head is made. The particularly dehumanising element is the bum-shuffle where one’s place in the queue is reserved only by one’s posterior. A seat pre-warmed by a fellow supplicant for our government’s attention is not that pleasant. Tidemarks now has sufficient white hair and gravitas sometimes to be offered a free jump to the head. Talking of white hair raises the observation that shopping malls are this year free of Santa Claus grottos and bewildered terrified infants. They are also pretty free of shoppers too. We all talk wistfully of returning to “normal” one day and perhaps we shall. But in the meantime I wish you a very merry and safe and peaceful Christmas. James Greener Friday 18th December 2020

WHO CAME FIRST? THE CAR OR THE DRIVER?

Even though the rand has improved as much as 20% from its lows set in the second quarter it still is not up for the 2020 calendar year. The body blows it received in the way of ratings downgrades and the ceaseless story line of corruption and theft in both the public and private sectors have proved hard to counter. Our currency has halved in value in a decade, as even the most well-meaning investors in and supporters of our peerless piece of Africa became disillusioned. Our poor government is flailing around trying to identify, understand and control everything happening out there in the real world which threatens their grand plan of the National Democratic Revolution planned for South Africa. The main objective is of course finding things to tax because these revolutions don’t come cheap Their problem is that citizens are far nimbler, abler and cleverer that even the grandest and largest of committees stuffed with well fed and clothed politicos and cadres, and in the time it takes to launch and think up a dreary name for their next ponderous control structure, the privateer has written an app, spotted a gap or founded a church and fed the family. For example, at this time of Covid-19 vaccinations there has been much talk about starting a state-owned pharmaceutical manufacturing facility. A sharp-eyed journalist has this week pointed out that there is already such a thing, founded at the height of the HIV panic. Apparently, it produces almost nothing. It’s probably best that we as a country stay out of the sharp end of this business. Oh, and close that outfit. Pretty much everything, with one exception, that we have been told about Covid-19 has turned out to be wrong. The exception is that contracting a heavy dose of this infection is extremely unpleasant and possibly fatal. Fortunately, in South Africa the number of people infected to such an extreme extent has been far fewer than forecast. Why this is so, is simply another thing where the explanations are probably incorrect. But it is indubitably true that the pandemic has opened undreamed of pathways for the accumulation of power and wealth. The latest is of course the arrival of vaccinations -- treatments which we were assured would take years to develop—but which this week were administered to actual patients. Reportedly one of these recipients in England was a man named William Shakespeare, which sounds suspiciously like a marketing ruse. To date, 10 billion doses of the various vaccines have been ordered and since this number is greater than the world’s population it shows that rich bullies have muscled their way to the front of the queue and huge profits beckon. This early indicator of the way in which the allocations of the medicine might happen, prompts Tidemarks to suggest that everyone who is “jabbed” also be “chipped” to provide confirmation of their probable infection-free status. Fierce opposition to this invasion of privacy is likely, but if the recommendation that our leaders and their advisors be among the first to be vaccinated (and of course chipped) were to be followed, it would show their commitment to and belief in the safety of their plans for the rest of us. A positive side effect would be that anyone with a chip should in future escape all the testing and quarantining business. This would also speed up airport queues for all of us. We might also find out all manner of interesting things! Now while all this biochemistry/ epidemiology/ virus malarky is going on, the modern world and free markets continue to gnaw away at the socialist utopia being concocted by our leaders and betters. The internet is just one of many reasons why the SABC is in dire financial trouble and although communications minister Stella Ndabeni-Abrahams identified that “a large proportion of the problems are market-related” she still insisted that a government remodel was the solution. Hers is the ministry that has donned the jester’s robes and told the world that in future international entertainment companies will be responsible for collecting TV licence fees from their South African customers and for carrying 30% South African content on their channels. So funny. Not a word about what customers might want. That tour by the English cricketers to SA was a mess and a dreadful embarrassment. And probably yet another example of Covid information misused. And F1? A rookie with shoes too big to fit into Hamilton’s car nearly wins the GP because the maestro is off having a Covid moment. Eish! James Greener Friday 11th December 2020 1 Similar to what we ask the vet to do for our pets by installing an ID tag .

PRACTICE OF DUPLICITY

The last time the rand was this strong against the US dollar was just before we went into lockdown. There were moments this week when one could buy a dollar for less than R15.50! The price of gold is falling, and the traditional signals of fear are leaking away. President Cyril renewed the state of disaster for another month, but one could see his heart was not in it. He threw open our borders and bottle stores but did grumble a bit about people’s propensity to party in the face of a pandemic that isn’t going away. In fact, it seems it may never go away totally and most of us have now come to terms with that and have each adopted our own strategy for coping. These include schools, many of which are now gearing up to offer a wholly online remote teaching experience. This is very sad but obviously the demand is there and its not as if we could have a very much worse state education system than we have at present. The smorgasbord of opinions, recommendations and undoubted facts about this wee bug grows larger every day and this week there was a flurry of information about vaccines. The one was a notice about the hurried termination of trial of a potion – presumably because it was proving harmful. The second was a very excited claim by Pfizer, a major pharmaceutical house, that their vaccine was ready. This good news was somewhat tainted by the story that the CEO of the company had simultaneously sold a large portion of his shareholdings in the business. Not the greatest of timing there. The cold hard truth is that chemical control of this virus is likely to be a long way off and it is still difficult to separate facts from things we would like to be true. Official responses to alarming “second waves” of infection have become increasingly erratic and inexplicable and one wonders if governments are not competing for some sort of award for managing to inconvenience and terrify their populace the most. Only three South African bars made it into a list of the globe’s top 100 such establishments: They are called: Sin + Tax (69th place), Cause Effect Cocktail Kitchen (75th place) and Art of Duplicity (88th place). None of these are in Durban and with names like these it seems unlikely that they specialise in serving bitterly cold Castle Lite in Zulu Dumpy bottles. Readers must not therefore expect any reviews from Tidemarks. Nevertheless, it’s nice to report yet another sign of our pre-virus old hedonistic lifestyles returning. Also, it feels as if more of the tunnels have real lights at the end of them. One of the nation’s head honchos, Ace Magashule, who is the secretary-general of the ANC ruling party, will soon appear in court on corruption charges related to a R255-million contract that he signed while he was premier of Free Sate province. The details are tedious and grubby but as always relate to money moving in unusual directions. Reportedly Ace is riffling through his pack of “get out of jail free” cards and so far, has played the conspiracy one. Nameless forces are out to get him it seems. The race card is sure to follow. Should these proceedings end in jail time for Ace – and provided the case does not drag on for years – others will begin to get uneasy. And why can’t we get the extradition agreement with Dubai ratified and haul in a few Guptas? Augusta National golf course in the northern hemisphere autumn is a sight normally available only to members. But because of COVID-19, this year’s Masters tournament had to be postponed from its usual spring timing and is only now being played. The lack of azalea blossom along the course is causing even more commentary than the competitors, but it still looks like a very special place. Even non-golfers are interested to watch the new generation of muscle men who can drive a golf ball 400 yards. Tidemarks is going on holiday and I am really looking forward to getting back to the Kruger National Park after a two-year break. The next letter should be offered on 11th December, by which time who knows what 2020 will have served up. James Greener Friday 13th November 2020

VOTE EARLY AND OFTEN

In general, the share markets seem happy with the lack of a clear winner in the USA election and prices are rising. It’s probably just relief that the pollsters and pundits will be put on ice for four more years. Its very comforting to read that the head tax collector has embarked on a three-stage turnaround that will “Exit Out” (staff members) who are believed to compromise the organisation. Just so long as he also “Enters In” sufficient replacements to reduce the queue for telephonic help from the current “you are number one – one – seven – four in the queue and the wait rime is approximately one hour and forty seven minutes”! That last S, standing for Service in the SARS acronym, has always been a worry. Man, but this democracy stuff is hard hey? Firstly, you have to create a list of the names of people eligible to vote and then you have to tick them off when they do. Then you have to count the ballots. Stories emerging from the USA at election times always indicate that the nation that put a man on the moon still can’t do these simple three things. So far, the greatest surprise is that in many cases the number of people who voted exceeds the number of names on the lists. Surely that means that some people voted more than once, so should not that invalidate the election? Apparently not. Then it turns out that very large batches of sequentially counted votes are all for the same candidate which statistically is highly unlikely and suggests ballot rigging which also might be a case for invalidating the election. And then there is the collegial system which attempts to make all individual votes have approximately the same weight. Inevitably this final process drives the losers nuts! Sadly, the USA is slowly but inevitably losing its claim to be the moral and intellectual leader of the worlds “western” democracies. By the way, does anyone remember if we stopped counting the votes in our 1994 election? Meanwhile the Zondo Commission of Enquiry has unearthed some real beauties. Their attitude and responses to the questions have been hilarious but tragic. Ms Yakhe Kwinana who chaired the board of SAA Technical as well as sitting on the main SAA board has been exposed as having scant skills to offer in either of those posts except for scoring enormous kickbacks from any company trying to win contracts with the national airline. Her “boss”, Ms Dudu Myeni, erstwhile chair of the main board has become very edgy about incriminating herself and has declined to say much of anything except “I won’t answer that question”. The witnesses are fortunate to be present on screen only for that surely prevents either Judge Zondo himself or evidence leader advocate Kate Hofmeyr from walking over and delivering an attitude-adjusting klap. The astonishing thing to emerge from these proceedings is that none of the witnesses seem to keep any sort of diary or journal. They are always very hazy on who, where and when. This includes things like wedding anniversaries! President Cyril is going to address us next week. He has declared that he is worried that people seem to have given up caring very much about Covid-19. Given the really extreme measure being re-imposed in some nations overseas, he may decide to follow suit. The fact is that citizens have simply lost faith and interest in any government plan “to save thousands of lives” involving lockdowns. Most of the livelihood-destroying measures attempted since March have caused more pain than the pandemic. And the medical profession has sown confusion and dismay by continually issuing authoritative declarations that contradict the previous one. By now, we each have formed our own strategies about masks, sanitising (or is it Satanizing?) and social distancing. And we reject the notion that there are such things as non-essential businesses. So will government please now step away and go and do something useful like replacing the broken and stolen infrastructure that is having a far greater impact on our lives that this virus, which is doing its own thing, oblivious to just about anything we try. The new Supersport TV line up does have some nice features. Like screening sports where there are real live fans like baseball and American football. James Greener Friday 6th November 2020

PLEASE DECLARE YOUR BITCOIN TRADING PROFITS

Share prices world wide have taken a bit of a hit in the last few days. Is this due in part to a rising expectation that the US election on Tuesday will be won by the Democrats? Removing Trump from the Presidency may probably be bad for most industries except for a few tech behemoths. Have you heard of the alleged existence of a Technocracy? But those giant corporations are the companies that dominate the US indices so perhaps the falls are signalling the view that Trump will be re-elected. In recent years opinion polls have been very wrong about election outcomes all over the world as the social media shuffles and swaps truth and falsehood at the speed of light. And bloody-minded voters have lied to pollsters. Soon it will all be revealed, except of course that the USA, for all its might, seems to adopt voting methods and systems that can generate huge and lasting controversies. COSATU, a trade union organisation, is rather disappointed in chef Tito Mboweni’s medium term budget speech. They are not alone. It seems that Tito finally got the memo – it must have been mixed up with his collection of recipe books – and is now back on track with the party line. And so, the key point of his speech which he delivered on Wednesday in parliament, is that the ANC is determined to try and resuscitate SAA, the utterly broke and now half dismantled state airline. A document accompanying the speech spells out exactly how much will be deducted from the original budget allocation to each of the 40 or so ministries, to make up the R10bn that someone thinks will be the price of this resurrection. In consequence, most of COSATU’s members will not get the pay rises promised in an agreement made in the era before pandemics and shattered economies. Uh oh. It is quite astonishing how the ANC and the government press on with grandiose pie-in-the-sky plans and schemes for the future when every single scrap of credible evidence paints a picture of a near technically bankrupt state. National Treasury is barely able to find the money each month to cover salaries for state employees, handouts for social benefit recipients, and interest to pay the lenders. To do so it needs to borrow, so that last item gets bigger every month. When is someone, well President Cyril, going to attack the expenditure side? For that is our sole route to any chance of salvation. This old-fashioned stockbroker is rather alarmed by the proliferation of get rich quick schemes that are being touted based on the new asset class known as crypto currencies. Even the tax collector, SARS, has added a question about this intangible asset to the personal income tax return form. Presumably, they too are intrigued by the claims of huge trading profits that await investors in these products. Doesn’t this somewhat belie the alleged attraction of this currency as being beyond the reach of nosy governments? Tidemarks willingly admits to not understanding Bitcoin and its competitors and for that reason alone would not “invest” in anything like that. The “valuation” of these instruments poses many problems to this old bear who is learning that even audited financial statements mean extraordinarily little. The total amount of money available to sport via TV rights, advertising and sponsorships and even ticket sales is a finite amount and must surely be declining. The last of these funding sources is generating almost nothing as the majority opinion is that sports stadia are deadly places that fans must avoid. The absence of crowds is now affecting my enjoyment of the televised events and watching habits and if this is common, perhaps even marketing spend may be suffering by now. Car seat hopping in Formula 1 has reached Olympic standard and those who like to remind us how terrible slavery was, might consider the way that soccer players are priced and traded! And the IPL cricket is a circus with fireworks, lights and dancing girls. Rugby has become a geography exam. Are these all the symptoms of an industry going through a change of life adjusting to less money? James Greener Friday 30th October 2020

THE DOOM OGRE WRITES

Tidemarks spends little time analysing the local markets, an exercise that was once its bread and butter. One reason for this is that the JSE is now a very pale shadow of its former self. The number of significant counters worthy of possible investment shrinks every week. And with almost every company still deep in survival mode, their financials and reports are exceptionally hard to interpret. Comparisons with prior years are meaningless and solid dependable guidelines about the economic future are non-existent. Recoveries in the bond and currency markets are totally dependant on whether the government is capable of slashing its expenditure and borrowings. Something that may be impossible for the socialists seemingly intent of following the Venezuelan example. Unless or until the decision makers and leaders of our government and its institutions are required to endure the conditions that the rest of us do there is little chance that things can get any better. For example, a government increasingly desperate for income sees nothing wrong with the tax man’s help line telling us that we are 976th in a queue and the wait will be around half an hour. Our nation is awash with roosting chickens clucking their anger and disapproval of the government’s assumption that we are satisfied with the dismal and failing services coupled to rising prices. The Covid-19 excuse is no longer working. Even the President muttered about government employees not doing any work. You think Cyril? The long-promoted idea that all politicians must, upon election, convert their savings into government bonds, use only public transport, security, schooling and hospitals needs an extension to include anyone drawing a salary funded by taxpayers. Simply it would require that no one can be employed by the state until they have worked in the private sector for at least 5 years. Not only would this ensure that all civil servants were mature and experienced but hopefully by then they will be disabused of the idea that money grows on trees. 2020 has been a dreadful year for sports fans, school pupils, university students, hospital patients and most people trying to make a living from providing goods and services to customers and clients. Small islands of success and prosperity do exist, but a great proportion of those have relied on corruption to survive and flourish. In South Africa an unexpected bonanza has been enjoyed by luxury car dealers and suppliers of medical masks, gloves and gowns. Skimming relief food parcels apparently is also fruitful. In those state-owned enterprises which are expected to collect at least a portion of their own income, matters are parlous as their customers also are unable and reluctant to pay for the frequently poor service and products that they now deliver. State broadcaster SABC has hit upon a plan to beef up TV licence fee collections. They want to declare that any device capable of displaying a movie is close enough to being a TV, that the owners of smart phones, tablets, laptops etc must therefore buy a TV licence. Not only that, but the content providers, like Netflix, must collect the fee and pass it on to the SABC. Really? No. Voetsak. Closely allied to this sort of thinking is the official concern that certain sports events should be free to view and that commercial channels must drop their paywalls when broadcasting them. Well OK, but only if the broadcaster be allowed to deduct the cost of the broadcasting rights paid to the sport from their tax payments. After all, if the state wants everyone to see these events then the state must pay. And of course a bigger audience will attract a bigger fee for the rights. These Marxists so badly need to learn how markets work and that sadly life is not fair. Greta Thunberg, the shrill young activist against global warming, has been nick-named “The Doom Pixie” as she battles to regain the headlines so suddenly seized from her topic by the Virus. Conspiracy theorists note the similarities in the way that “the Science” for both phenomena are foisted upon us and mutter deeply. We are led to believe that only governments have the wisdom and wherewithal to understand and interpret such facts as there are. And now the Formula 1 champion, Lewis Hamilton is recording an album. Is he bored or does he not have enough money? James Greener Friday 23rd October 2020

MONEY MONEY MONEY

Clearly our tireless civil servants here in SA have been very busy during the various stages of lockdown. While almost 10% of the workforce were being laid off and wondering how to feed their families, the bureaucrats, free of such worries, were crafting screeds of new laws and regulations. The unexpected but gleefully accepted opportunity afforded by the State of Disaster (now extended for a further month) will one day cease and so our leaders are keen to have laws that will keep us dancing to their tunes. The list of new legislation we can expect includes a tightening of the drinking and driving laws, giving the state further powers to confiscate our stuff, a change in the format of vehicle number plates, the next step in introducing the National Health Insurance, changes to how the Post Office and municipalities will operate, changes to the TV licence system and a new law about how to label food and a number of new taxes (particularly with an eye to emigrants) to help pay for it all. These were topped off this week by another of Presidents Cyril’s wish lists which apparently took National Treasury by surprise and they asked for a 1-week postponement of the so called mini-budget to the 28th of this month. Ominous. Reaction to all of this starts with wondering if our President actually reads and discusses with wise advisors any of his speeches beforehand. By now he must surely realise that they merely waft into the atmosphere unheeded because they are utterly divorced from reality. It doesn’t really matter what the monetary values are that Cyril throws about when he announces his ludicrous plans. It is infuriating, disappointing and astonishing how the affordability question never seems to enter the grandiose plans. The money for most of these schemes simply is not there and will not ever be, until, at the very least, his government spends less than it collects in taxes and levies. There are three major tax-eating constituencies dependent on the state for the greatest portion of their income and tinkering with these could be career-ending for any politician who attempts to do so. First in line is the massive and all-powerful patronage network that feeds off the government procurement programs and whose kickback practices fund many lavish lifestyles. Then there is the powerful lobby of overpaid supernumerary state employees. But the most worrying group is the rapidly growing list of desperate beneficiaries of the state social grants and other direct relief programs. These are weak and vulnerable people who are starving and who everyone (barring a few saintly charities) tries to ignore All of these must be fed before a cent can be spent on filling a single pothole, repairing a sewer or replacing a street light. While debt is one way to fund capital projects – aka Cyril’s much vaunted infrastructure program – the fact is that a decade of successive ratings downgrades shows that lenders know what we are really worth and so borrowing has become rather expensive. Even servicing current debt is making the pips squeak. One thing for certain as far as improved performance is concerned is that professional sports men and women have learned how to tap into the riches that massive TV audiences can potentially provide. Insofar that this is private money voluntarily spent by couch potatoes, it is a fascinating example of capitalism at work. The fact that talent and effort are not evenly distributed so that only the very best athletes achieve fame and pocket the bulk of the money seems to offend those who prefer low level equality and so for decades sport has attracted politicians and administrators keen to sort things out in return for some of the spoils. From time to time these developments anger the potatoes and they fumble with their TV remote controls, a fact keenly observed by the sponsors and advertisers and an upheaval takes place. A good example of this is currently taking place in professional basketball in the USA. A similar development is wracking the major sports of soccer, rugby, and cricket here in SA where the COVID excuse is being trotted out to smokescreen all manner of issues mainly related to selection on merit. James Greener Friday 16th October 2020