JUST PAY YOUR TAXES AND SHUT UP

Apparently the US government has debt totalling USD 38.4 trillion. This is a big number and it is up against  a self-imposed limit that has to be reset upwards from time to time following a bizarre ritual that takes place when the elected representatives of Congress sort of pretend that they never saw this coming and mutter things like “My goodness me, that’s a lot of money”. “But let’s agree to increase the limit this time and we will really do something about it next time.” Unless or until the lenders stop accepting freshly minted US Dollar notes with the ink still wet, this show can go on indefinitely, just like Disney Land.

The time was when the World Economic Forum was a hot ticket to have. Especially if you thought of oneself as a bit of an expert in the world of investing. The trick of course was to get someone who made the decisions and controlled the purse strings to agree with this self-assessment. And bingo, there you were among the good and great trying to pretend that one’s South African winter clothes were stylish and adequate for the snows of Switzerland. Discussions on grave topics would take place. But as with all conferences it was the networking that counted. In the days before digital cameras and selfies one had to rely on the photographers to capture the moment when you were offering Warren Buffet advice. But these days the WEF has morphed into something vile and threatening. Delegates are openly proclaiming that they are a select group of human beings “almost extra-terrestrial” in their skills and foresight on “saving the planet” Elon Musk nailed it with the comment that “WEF is increasingly becoming an unelected world government that the people never asked for and don’t want.”

Loyal readers know that Tidemarks' antipathy towards electrically powered vehicles began with doubtful scepticism, progressed through scientific dismissal and is now unalloyed schadenfreude. The You Tube motoring channels are today filled with master classes in a new psychiatric condition called range anxiety. Simply because their new cars display ridiculously accurate estimates of how far their sleek chariot will travel before the batteries are depleted, they foolishly believe it. Add to this is the fact that recharging is currently a bit of a gamble with uncertainty of location, accessibility and time to charge and you have the ingredients for a full scale fret. It’s rather odd when you recall that motorists are quite used to interpreting the quite ludicrously lackadaisical liquid fuel tank gauges with a needle that drifts between F to E and not much else. Most drivers have become adept at judging where to stop to satisfy firstly passenger bathroom and biltong needs and then a tank top up. But today’s EV motorist has become totally unhinged by the theoretical superior accuracy of the range gauge and the power source reliability. This for smug-inducing TV.

Surely it has been irrevocably proven and accepted that there is absolutely no medical or clinical benefit to wearing a simple gauze mask.  By contrast there is plenty of evidence for psychological damage, especially to children, caused by masks. It is therefore very alarming that mandatory masking is back for consideration. If our government wanted to demonstrate a real and valid effort to reduce unnecessary deaths in this country, then road traffic control is the area where actual effects will quickly be seen. Merely tracking down those responsible for  the half dozen terrifying road incidents posted on the Internet every day and processing them with due despatch will make a difference.

The world of sport is settling back to normality after the hullabaloo that was the soccer world cup. And The Dakar Rally. Except that there are so many fresh new faces in the old favourites like the Aussie Open Tennis. Do the organisers operate a play room with building blocks and other toys to keep the contestants amused while they wait for their matches to start? The Sevens Rugby has a tournament in Hamilton this weekend which might not be easy watching for Blitzbokke fans. The local version of a cricket T20 shoot ‘em up is doing remarkably well in attracting spectators.

James Greener

Friday 20^th January 2023

DARKNESS FALLS ON THE SOUTHERN TIP

We are probably not supposed to notice but there are bulls stampeding all over the share and bond markets. Buyers can’t currently see an indicator that makes them fearful. In the US, the yield curve is rarely as inverted as it is now.– short term interest rates are well above long term interest rates – so that’s another old favourite “please panic now” signal shot to bits. But guess what? The gold price is also bullish and may soon set new highs in most currencies. Barbarous relic! Bring on the crypto currencies. What’s that? Someone stole them? Oh dear. But aren’t they all block chained into unbreakable security?

Last year ended with the damp squib of an Elective Conference which at the very least we uninformed naive analysts expected to see fisticuffs and rolling heads. But no, even the traditional displays of flying chairs failed to take place.  Delegates merely ticked the boxes they were and slithered back under their rocks to await the general election in 2 years’ time.

Astonishingly Cyril is going to the annual Davos shindig next week. Why? Did Comrade Gwede Mantashe pay for the ticket perhaps? There are just so many reasons for President Frog Boiler to be at home, not least of which, is the fact that the nation’s electricity supply has dwindled to a useless soul-destroying trickle, for which Eskom has the gall and impertinence to apply for (and even get!)  a 30% odd tariff increase! Another is that he never seems to bring back anything of value from these jaunts. Like reasons why we don’t need a State Bank. Or the news that he has been arrested at Customs on charges of money laundering and couch abuse.

Sufficient time has now elapsed since the start of the Covid incident to enable the coarse-grained data (monthly and longer) to reveal the extent of the damage that  the state’s response caused in the economic landscape. One such data set is the government’s deficit. That is, the gap between what taxes bring in and the amount of spondulix the lads and lasses in charge are spending. The decade before Covid, this shortfall, which has to be covered with borrowings, ran at an already eye-watering and unsustainable average of just less than R200bn a month. In April 2021 it peaked at almost R600bn. Lockdown tripled the deficit! But things have not recovered very much and at present the average monthly deficit is a tad over R300bn.With this number hanging over their heads it’s hard to understand the near triumphal tone used by officials who announced that half the population is totally dependant on state handouts for their existence.

Despite queuing at the Traffic Department for almost three hours I failed to encounter actor Tom Cruise who allegedly is in town to make a movie to be entitled Mission Impossible 8 - Renewing a South African Driver’s Licence.  I did eventually get the 3 minutes of attention required from an inexplicably calm official in order to collect a new driver’s licence.

These and other similar earlier experiences in this “renew your licence” saga did reveal an interesting feature about a new role for white-skinned South Africans as human place holders in these unending waits. In rough agreement with the national demographic, about 1 in 20 people on average in a queue at a state facility is white and they are quickly singled out by the darker fellow supplicants for service, who see no reason to stand in the sun when a mlungu will meekly perform that task. Whenever the official line shuffles forward to the point where a place holder approaches a chair, the shade or some other small milestone of comfort, the wise men reappear and reclaim their positions around the white man. Rarely does a true and blatant queue jumper appear although an occasionally suspiciously sprightly grey-hair turns up  with an obviously little used walking stick. In general we are as a nation respectful of old age.

I really must make up my mind whether to follow the SA20 Cricket tournament or one of those overseas rugby contests that SA teams did so well in last year. The team names in the former are just so uninspiring. But watching rugby from the pool bar seems very odd. Just a few days of the Dakar left.

James Greener

Friday 13^th January 2023.

THE OPENING OVER

There is an organisation called the Johannesburg Roads Agency. It probably occupies a very confused space as multiple nationally owned and administered roadways traverse its territory. This is fertile ground for “Not my Job” excuses. Its most recent quarterly report almost cheerfully admits that the status of the 12 000km road network it does care for, ranges from poor to very poor and requires rehabilitation or reconstruction. Its own scorecard records 45 000 pot holes in need of filling.  It further notes that 68 city bridges need urgent repair. This is not good news, and you would think that the organisation works ceaselessly to do something about this. You would be wrong. Its CEO, who styles himself “Hon. Dr Tshepo Mahanuke”, reportedly spends much of his time keeping a lookout for any sign of disrespect for his qualifications. Greetings or communication not addressing him appropriately are ignored and returned unread. The best part of this story, however, is that most of these honourifics, qualifications and titles are bogus, or fake, having been issued by dodgy and in some cases non-existent institutions! Joburgers need not expect their potholes to be fixed any time soon. Tshepo is busy getting his newest certificate as a member of the Mickey Mouse club framed.

Tidemarks has been very quiet recently because his granddaughter – remember I told you about the most beautiful one on the planet – has been visiting from Edinburgh. And as grandparents know, these creatures require nearly unlimited attention and entertaining. Normally ice cream and beach can satisfy much of the demand but this year it has been hard to make a case for either. Firstly, the weather has quite frequently been below “Durban at Christmas Time” specification, And then sea water pollution has been dreadful. Although the daily official measurements of sea water contamination for certain beaches in the area have caused All Clear signs to go up, the colour and odour of the ocean is uninviting. Importantly users are not convinced and people with sensitive noses are staying away. Indoor venues such as Ushaka Marine World and  the large and glitzy shopping malls are however well attended showing that there is pent up demand and certainly some disposable cash is knocking about. 

Increasingly though, more and more vendors and venues are refusing cash and accepting only electronic payments. One wonders to what extent this development is being tapped into and taken note of by supporters of things like state controlled digital currency. Mind you it seems that South Africa remains a key point is the money laundering business so the Leopard and the Buffalo my be with us for a while still.

Meanwhile many organisations are using this time of reduced attention to slip possibly controversial news releases into the public domain. For example, The World Bank seeks to expand its lending capacity to address climate change and other global crises. These changes will require additional staff and budget resources, which have declined by 3% in real terms over the past 15 years. Another case of good money after bad. The only useful aspect of the huge cold weather system that punished much of the northern hemisphere recently is that some more folk may have begun to join those of us who are unconvinced that there is much meaning or point to “Net Zero”.  

Man but That Dakar Rally is a tough ne?

James Greener

Friday 6^th January 2023

 

SOME OF THE LADY OFFICIALS WERE REALLY CUTE

The task of being an investment analyst comes down to choosing a few prices and indicators that interest you and then making them your own. Then ensuring that when the press need an opinion and quote about them, yours is the name that they think of.  If by some incredible luck, a reasonable number of consecutive forecasts prove correct, one becomes a guru and gets to wear a bowtie or some other notable gaudy trademark for TV appearances. This week one particularly over-analysed and hyped indicator – the US consumer prices inflation statistic -- was published and turned to be just one significant figure lower than expected. A hullaballoo ensued and some share prices went up. The talking heads declared the end of all that was bad and horrible in share investing. Which of course it's not. It never is. Every single day each of the numbers either goes up or down or nowhere.  At the moment we are all very keen to be able to declare that the covid monster and its impact on our lives, especially on our economic status has gone. Unfortunately, a significant sized cohort are calling the exact opposite.

The story about the Russian cargo ship, Lady R, calling silently into port at Simonstown, loading a secret cargo in complete darkness and slipping back over the horizon without ever showing up on any marine monitoring services is fascinating. But unlikely to be regarded as friendly towards most of the rest of the world. I doubt President Frogboiler was told any more than the rest of us. After all he regards his sofa to be a secret hiding place, We are probably way out our depth here. I wonder who scored the biggest kickback?

The final whistle at the Soccer World Cup will blow on Sunday and the folk who ran around and kicked the ball will all go home. Then the real serious sport will now begin as the lawyers squabble about who owes what money to whom. The more interesting of these skirmishes will surely involve Budweiser, the holders of the exclusive right to sell alcoholic beer in the stadiums. This is one of the costliest concessions offered by FIFA, the organisers of the tournament. But this year, just days before the tournament began, the Qatari hosts changed their mind and decided that the activity of selling beer to football fans would offend many people. And so, they reneged on the agreements.  Budweiser thinks this unexpected decision cost them almost USD50 million and are looking for someone to sue. Surely not! The other rather amusing sight has been the luxurious individual seating provided above the half-way line for the great and good. The individual armchairs are so wide that conversation with one’s fellow spectators was mostly impossible, and communication is limited to waving and smiling.

It has at last dawned on the Durban City Grandees that the attractions of the city they are supposed to run, are the long clean golden beaches with the sparking waters of the Indian ocean crashing on to them. But the current situation has, since the massive floods in April this year, has been far from this idyllic scene. The floods caused massive damage to untold millions of rands worth of infrastructure – the pumping stations designed to lift the sewage away from the coast and over to treatment plants behind the sand dunes. Whatever the excuse for failing to carry out the repairs or in many cases even begin them, the tourists and visitors – especially ones with both money and a working knowledge of the pathogeny of that nasty little critter eColi – are staying away.  The most visible and hilarious response to this utter calamity has been a splash party comprising a selection of city officials decked out in swimsuits, goggles and in some cases wet suits. The pictures from this photo op showed that the guinea pigs were far from convinced that they were safe. It is still a nasty smelly mess and some recent heavy rain has unfortunately reinforced the present closure of the beaches.

James Greener

Thursday 15^th December 2022 (Dingaans Day Public Holiday tomorrow)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

THE SCAMS JUST NEVER STOP

The biggest bad egg in the rapidly unfolding record-setting financial scam is a chap named Sam Bankman-Fried. The news readers insist on pronouncing the second part of this double-barrelled surname as “freed” but that is an act of kindness as Sam appears to have “fried” a large number of banks., their money and their client’s money. Tens of billions of dollars have simply disappeared, as FTX, a so-called “crypto exchange” has collapsed. Latest estimates are that at least a million “investors” are today wondering where their money went. Scurrilous and malicious commentators have been pointing out that the US government has in the last few months poured a similar number of dollars into the black hole that is labelled “Aid for Ukraine”. But suffice for the moment to revel in the nominative determinism of Sam the fraudster! The collateral damage is huge with very bright spotlights and withering analyses from Warren Buffet and other financial old fogies making life hard for those who claim to understand the investment case for crypto currencies.

Meanwhile in Britain, whoever is in charge this week, has firmly seized on the utterly false idea that leaving people to decide how best to spend their own money is very foolish. Just weeks after a previous Chancellor (minister of finance to us) tried to achieve the exact opposite, the present one has decided to tax citizens into prosperity! Really, parents who produce offspring that turn out to be politicians should be dealt with firmly. We really need to drain that gene pool.

An unhappy feature of SA politics is the dreadful insistence never to stop flogging a dead horse. The SAA rescue saga reappeared this week replete with all the usual suspects but none of them bringing any actual cash to pay the debtors. Meanwhile over at Eskom they caught a chap sabotaging the repair he had just completed so that he would be paid to come back and repair it again. Among the doom-laden analyses that pour down the data lines is an interview by Alec Hogg of one K W Miller, a US energy restructuring specialist. His research has found that corruption has completely eviscerated our electricity utility whose debt now is so large that analysts combine it with the far smaller government debt portfolio and rate it as way lower than t junk status. For someone who remembers when Eskom debt was rated higher quality than the sovereign RSA bonds it is a tragedy.

It is the time of year when Tidemarks packs his binoculars and anti-mozzie muthi (mosquito repellent) and heads off to the Kruger. This season’s excursion is longer than usual as I’m the excited beneficiary of a very generous gift from a loyal reader and long-time friend of a few days in his private lodge. It’s how the rich and famous live. The next edition of this unmissable commentary will therefore next appear only in mid-December.

But few will notice this hiatus, as it coincides almost exactly with the staging of the Soccer World Cup and even if you are not a round-ball football fan, plenty of off-the-ball incidents are bound to pop up and seize your attention. For a start the eminently unsuitable host nation, Qatar, has already started to harass sponsor Budweiser and their customers (beer drinking soccer fans) with even more regulations and utterly outrageous beer prices of reportedly well over R200 per 500ml. However, the thousands of official delegates flocking to this shindig, courtesy of their taxpayers, won’t be overly concerned about the cost of a beer. Their more exotic tipple will be eagerly poured for them by regiments of influencers (dreadful word and concept) and advisors! The South African contingent includes our very own brand-new King Misuzulu Zulu, but no actual soccer players – Bafana sadly failed to qualify. Although their victory dance routine is pretty neat.

James Greener

Friday 18^th November 2022

 

 

 

HOW DID WE ALLOW THE CLIMATE CHANGE BOONDOGGLE?

 COP 27! The levels of wilful ignorance and Olympian hypocrisy on display at these regular jamborees for the opportunistically green and allegedly good leaves common sense, reality and plain scientific fact bleeding in the gutter. Even the full name of the shindig -- The Climate Implementation Summit – reveals the spirit-sapping arrogance of the idea that mankind can significantly alter the processes of nature. This meeting was held in the posh Red Sea resort of Sharm el-Sheikh, a venue doubtless much to the liking of those delegates from countries where winter is starting to make itself felt. There’s some irony here but as usual it will be lost on the Global Warming zealots. It did allow the South African delegation to skip their iconic rainbow-nation coloured scarves. Reportedly the SA team won considerable admiration from other delegates for its particular contribution to proceedings, the sole real detail of which is a funding “gap” of R700 billion! This announcement even occasioned a photo op which reveals the shallow pseudo commitment of everyone to the whole event. Our very own President Frog Boiler is apparently entertaining three very high-ranking co-attendees, starting with John Kerry from the USA who clearly wanted very badly to be somewhere else. His body language has not gone unnoticed by the German Chancellor Olaf Scholz who obviously is also keen to bolt for an exit. Both “gentlemen” (?) are prepared to leave Ursula von der Leyden, European Commission head honcho, to her fate and Cyril’s tale of how to make money from rare cows.

Or was he perhaps boasting that the richest province in our nation has decided to scrap the annoying micro-tolling system that attempts to milk the massive traffic flows on the major roads around Joburg. Ursula can be forgiven for having no interest in this topic but many of us are intrigued. If only as an offshoot from some major juggling of state expenditure in the recent so-called “Mini Budget”. It seems as if those in charge of SANRAL (the national road network operator) and the 10 year old Gauteng e-Toll fiasco don’t have a working calculator or even a used envelope (what’s that?) to scribble down a few simple sums. And what about the Austrian vendors and operators of the dozens of unsightly gantries. Has the change in their cash flow been discussed with them? Maybe the problem with the e-tolls was that mini bus taxis were exempt and the national vehicle registration records are reportedly seriously dysfunctional and incapable of tracking toll bilkers.

Old and boring sceptics like Tidemarks are however, supposed to be pleased with the other transport news that public money has been used to design and build a range of “donkey carts” for sale to new entrants to the business. This is no laughing matter and the story of the “karretjiemense” was the topic of a sad and successful book (my Children have Faces by Carol Campbell) a decade ago. However, as always, when bureaucrats get involved, the already fabricated carts have numerous shortcomings long ago ironed out in the wooden platformed carts based on the back axle of a scrapped bakkie.  Remember the ridiculous single patient motorcycle sidecar ambulances? 

It is hard to ignore the fact that the soccer world cup is about to begin. Advertisers are pumping up their presence even on non-soccer channels.  Most alarming however was the appearance of the ex- and thoroughly disgraced previous boss of FIFA. Remember how easily we allegedly bribed him to award us the 2010 event? Now Septic Blather is cheerfully admitting this week that the choice of Qatar as hosts for the imminent 2022 tournament, was all a terrible mistake and, “Hey, sorry to all concerned!”  This may not be a wise taunt to issue to men who carry sharp swords, but the guy seems to be immune to decency and integrity.

The ‘bok selectors have an unenviable task of finding someone who knows to kick a rugby ball. It’s quite interesting just how fast a talent pool can empty. Even at the national level. The French match this weekend may be as miserable for us as the Irish one was last week. At least the Proteas know their fans don’t expect them to win major tournaments.

James Greener

Armistice Day 2022

ANOTHER US CIVIL DISAGREEMENT?

The unexpected convergence of the three big currencies (USD,EUR & GBP) to near parity with each other has made our lives down here just a little bit easier. Just multiply the foreign price by 20 (for the innumerate, double and add a zero!) and that’s about what it’s going to cost in rands. Now all we need is for our leaders to do clever and sensible stuff and pretty soon the magic multiplier could be 10! Unfortunately though, like many elections all over the world recently, our own contest for the presidency of the ruling party and therefor the nation, is squeezing some wholly unsavory characters from the rotting woodwork. If nepotism were a sport at the Olympics we would probably score highly. There are brothers and sisters in law by the Bentley full.

A very strange development is filling the channels of social media (i.e. internet messages exchanged by over-excited self-important but largely clueless interlocutors).  Some of those who were calling for the total defenestration (or at least “cancellation”) of anyone who dared question the popular narrative about the covid infection in the past 2 years are now apologising and seeking forgiveness. Say what? Are there people now granting absolution via their optic fiber connections?  It is getting more bizarre by the day,

Recall that the US Federal Reserve led most central banks in cutting key interest rates to almost zero as a gesture of compassion to those suffering financial hardship arising inevitably from the actions of other branches of leadership. Think “lockdown”. This never seemed to work on the progress of the infection at any rate and so this year the Fed has been hard at work cranking the rates all the way back up. This week we saw another rise of 75 basis points to 4.0%pa. That a 1500% increase in the cost of this sort of financing since March. Definitely not business friendly!

It is both entertaining and alarming watching the USA preparing for an important election. Firstly, that nation seems to be forever going to the polls as the 4-year political cycle is rather short. But I suppose if you are a wealthy country it doesn’t matter if the electorate spend lots of time bickering and electioneering. However, for all their wittering about democracy and warning each other that the imminent election is bound to be rigged (or at least, will deliver unexpected or unpalatable outcomes for the commentator of the moment ) it seems we could teach the Americans a little about holding elections.  

Firstly we have a voters roll which is a simple list of everyone who has bothered to go and register to be a voter. This list imposes a reasonably fair eligibility filter and a count of how many people may be expected to vote. A further sort by geographical region is also now possible, and can be used to specify who may vote where. Absentee and postal votes are strongly discouraged and should not in total achieve a level where they can reverse the outcome revealed by the ordinary walk-in votes.

The polling station process is also simple. The voter presents ID and in return has their name ticked off the voters roll and receives the appropriate ballot papers.  Voting consists of making a mark in secret on that  ballot paper and dropping it into a ballot box. After the polls close, the boxes are opened and sorting and counting of the individual ballot papers takes place under the watchful eye of multiple scrutineers. Spoilt papers are identified and discarded. The outcome is simply a list of number of votes cast for each candidate . The total number of votes cast and counted should never exceed the number of voters who appeared at the polling station.. The election is now complete . Not a whisper about  a malfunctioning or rigged voting machine. Not a single hanging chad.

This very simple process, which now seems obvious even to us South Africans despite our embarrassing past, strangely, seems to baffle  the Americans. The seem to expect and demand  complexity and controversy. And have constructed a system that richly rewards that expectation.  Tidemarks forecasts that this time next week lawyers will be looking for beach front property.

James Greener

Friday 4^th November 2022.