POP GOES THE WEASEL

The nation’s Gross Domestic Product for the third quarter 2021 was released by Stats SA this week and good news was hard to find. We have yet to recover from the “Big Hit” in the second quarter of 2020 which erased almost 20% from the nation’s economic scorecard. That was when we all managed to scare ourselves that the end was nigh and the best we could do was to sit and wait for a virus to obliterate civilisation. While that has thankfully turned out to be spectacularly wrong, many politicians and leaders have been reluctant to give up the powers they awarded themselves at the start of the crisis and are still lurking with edicts and decrees which are hampering citizens in desperate need of a swift recovery. It is telling and important to repeat that the former group are characterised by not having missed a pay day during the close on 2 years this incident has lasted, while the latter almost universally have. This craze for opening Pop-Up stores arrived in SA a few years ago, but until now did not make much of an impact here on the eastern shores. Mind you, Tidemarks is a reluctant and disappointing shopper at the best of times so this observation could be faulty. Suddenly, however, Pop-Ups are now ubiquitous but seem to be confined to the medical services. Which is rather odd, because one associates health care with starched white uniforms, gleaming floors and sterile procedures and not scruffy gazebos in a garage forecourt or a mall parking lot. Komatipoort is a delightfully busy and vibrant African town which perhaps rivals the notorious Wuhan Wet Market for being a rich source of pathogens. Nonetheless, under a flapping canvas shelter, near the very busy entrance to the SPAR supermarket, a vaccination medical team were jabbing away as if it was a darts match final. More numerous than vaccination centres are the businesses offering to test for ones Covid-19 infection status. Presumably this is because there is a financial incentive. The going rate for a test seems to be in the region of R850 a patient, and cash and cards are gratefully accepted. Limited research suggests that this rate is much the same all over the globe – interesting. The one operating from a small tent pitched right in the main footfall path of the popular Restaurant Row in Umghlanga Rocks, promises same-day results for a PCR test. This is indeed speedy and somewhat at odds with the methodology developed by Prof Kary Mullis the inventor of the procedure. But with establishments like this at every street corner, bowling clubhouse and taxi rank, it’s little wonder that reports of nearly ten thousand new infections are being reported every day. Also intriguing is the confidence with which new cases are ascribed as being due to the latest named “variant”. Perhaps it would be helpful if this news were not shared so lavishly when there are so many amateur virologists keen to proffer conflicting prognoses which get the aforementioned leaders unduly excited. Once upon a time, markets used to anticipate the official release of all kinds of numbers deemed important for interpreting the past and divining the future. Parameters such as the repo rate , the trade balance , gross domestic product, even the sales of cement and the inflation rate all had their teams of observers and shills prepared to deliver whatever story best suited their book. Or to be truthful, their client’s book. This may not still be the case as Tidemarks no longer sits in a dealing room and is deliriously ignorant about the real world out there. However, it does appear that things are not like they used to be and the accuracy, credibility and reliability of many official statistics, from both the public and the private sector have undoubtedly deteriorated. The term “audited financial statements” probably no longer has the cachet it once used to. Very few reports of public spending are trustworthy. The owners and operators of the Formula 1 jamboree must be delighted that the championship has come down to the last race. What a bonus for sponsors and advertisers and a case study for sceptics of the power of free markets. The break in the steady flow of Tidemarks was due to me going to the Kruger National Park for 2 weeks. Thanks for the numerous enquiries from concerned well-wishers. James Greener Friday 10th December 2021

THE POWER CUT ATE MY BITCOIN

Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana delivered his maiden medium-term budget policy statement yesterday and stuck pretty much to the party songbook that everything will be alright provided we all got vaccinated and trusted the state program of fiscal consolidation and structural reforms. He did admit to a woodpile resident in the form of a fourth Covid-19 wave possibly turning up to cause further difficulties for National Treasury already coping with an underperforming, debt-laden economy. Sadly, our latest Finance minister is another who wears hats indoors. Superficial research suggest that this habit correlates with mostly poor performance by the person standing underneath the decoration. The excitement and even hysteria about crypto currencies continues to rise with the best known member of the clan (Bitcoin) breaching R1m in price. But definitely not in value. Tidemarks cheerfully admits to not understanding these instruments at all and his concern about how to establish a value for them was deepened after watching a video of a crypto currency mine at work. It consisted of a ton of computers linked and packed together inside a rusty goods container plonked down in the backwoods of some chilly northern hemisphere country. It was consuming lots of electrical power which was being converted mainly to heat and a few meagre arithmetic answers to unfathomably difficult sums. The only moving parts were impressive industrial sized fans trying to keep the whole shebang cool. Presumably the miner is occasionally rewarded for keeping this gizmo running with a unit of crypto currency being credited to his “wallet”. The sole possibly interesting thing is that if this credit is indeed income that can be used to purchase (or to swap for) goods and services then the tax man knows nothing about it. Yet. The COPPERS have decided to go to Egypt and United Arab Emirates for their next two meetings. These venues will probably be warmer than Glasgow and will better support their theses that Armageddon (or catastrophic sea level rise and other bad stuff) is nigh. They also confirm that eco warriors are immune to irony and devoid of common sense as these countries are great benefactors from the production and sale of oil But almost certainly the number of 5-star hotel rooms available in those venues will be closer to their needs than Clydeside has been. Too many even well meaning and knowledgeable people are now on board this bandwagon, and no one now dares to cry wolf and imperil the very large cash flows on which whole political dynasties, academic careers, huge industries and communities depend. Quietly our National Soccer team is taking successful baby steps toward getting invited to attend next year’s World Cup. There’s a long way to go but they have the second highest number of points in the African World Cup Qualifier series. It has long been a disappointment that a nation of this size didn’t do better. Mind you their celebration routine after scoring a goal would make them shoo-in victor if ever that were made into a competition. The gentlemen’s agreement not to criticise rugby referees and their decisions is crumbling fast. All over the internet (if not yet the big sports TV networks) one stumbles across respected talking heads pointing things out on endless replays. It will end to everyone’s satisfaction(?) only when the whistle man and his two flag carrying flunkies are totally replaced by technology. There are now intelligent balls that know where they are and how they got there, and individual player locations on the field are also known in real time with amazing accuracy. Imagine a loud synthesised whistle blast and a coloured icon projected on to the field which shows the position and nature of the infringement. The whole playing surface could go yellow or red and a projected circle would identify the serious miscreant and follow him all the way on his embarrassing journey to the sin bin! Perhaps it will soon be only deep inside the scrum where those present will ever know what’s really happening! But generally, all front row players deserve some privacy and respect as they go about their work. James Greener Friday 12th November 2021 Tidemarks will be suspended for the next 3 weeks as I am going to the KNP.

VOTER’S REMORSE

Standing in the queue at the polling station provides a fine opportunity for marvelling at how cumbersome this kernel of the democratic process still is. The counting of the votes part seems to be particularly inefficient but in the past it was not. That these days there are fewer bank tellers experienced in counting currency notes volunteering to duty on election night might have something to do with it. Having ballot papers the size of a bed sheet also doesn’t help. At my polling station, the lass wielding the ruggedised iPad device was the bottleneck in the process. After scanning one’s ID card or book with the wireless device, it yielded a number that she clearly announced, and which was then handwritten on the back of the ballot paper. Does that not create a direct link between voter and vote? It was however comforting to see the gentleman who pushes the ballot papers into the ballot box slot with a plastic ruler is still on duty. And really that flatpack polling station furniture suite is pure genius. The provincial secretary of the ANC, a party that seems to have lost considerable support country wide, is reported as saying “something has gone horribly wrong in KZN”. That is perhaps the sole truth of the week. There are astonishing video clips of municipal employees clutching papers and their lunchtime sandwiches, being physically bundled out of municipal buildings. There is no time to waste when it comes to getting aboard the gravy train. The national penchant for ceremonies was indulged last night when a closing ceremony for the election gave President Frogboiler an opportunity to drone on about democratic right, civic duty and a quote from Rubi who told Cyril that she had faith in the leaders of South Africa. But perhaps the 2021 local authority election has shown that South Africans are utterly disillusioned with eternal political promises which will not and cannot ever be fulfilled while the public sector squats like an evil giant bull frog on top of the economy, hoovering up the biggest and fattest flies attracted by the corpse beneath. As expected, the flow of hot carbon dioxide-loaded air at COP 26 has been epic. Everyone including the Prince of Wales has a Plan for how the nearly 8bn of us on this planet ought to behave. Remarkably there is also a Plan for little old us down here on the southern tip. The European Union, Germany, France, the UK and the US have partnered to support South Africa’s climate action goals. They are keen to help us with something called a “Just Energy Transition” which means moving from our heavy reliance on coal to cleaner and renewable energy sources. The glossy wish list announcement opens with 15 paragraphs starting with words like “recognising”, “welcoming” and “embracing” and ends with 5 action paragraphs beginning with “establish” and “explore” All very grown up and official looking. But wait, there’s money: USD 8.5bn which we can all be sure will find no better custodian than the South African Government. Already the local politicians – who obviously knew this was coming -- have thrown their hats into the ring on behalf of the communities and special interests they support. Brace yourself for the blazer badges reading Net Zero Carbon to replace last year’s natty 4IR logo. (4th Industrial Revolution- remember that?). Sorry to harp on though, but it’s the gaps in the physics and chemistry that need attention. It’s not yet feasible to replace the energy available in a 5l jerry can of petrol with something equally portable. Whenever the Australian cricket team appear on the TV in the bar at the bowling club, unrestrained booing still breaks out. The relatively lenient punishment handed out to the players in their test team that went onto a field with sandpaper in their underwear obviously determined to cheat, rankles deeply. So it was very satisfying to see Australia beaten (even if it was only by England) at the T20 world cup tournament. They only just scraped a win against SA. What’s that? The Proteas meet England tomorrow? Pah! And now three back-to-back F1 Grands Prix. That’s a tough ask but look who is asking. The money bags! James Greener Friday Guy Fawkes Day 2021

NO KNEES NEEDED

Tidemarks’ favourite hobby horse is that many of our ills in this nation have their origin in the state’s program of distributing various grants to the needy in lieu of lifting the many barriers they have imposed on enabling the needy to get gainful employment. So proud are they of this redistribution system that the department of Social Development this week claimed that it was on a par with the world’s best. This dreadful boast is on a par with the reason offered by an unemployed young woman standing in the ruined litter-strewn wasteland of what used to be Krugersdorp city centre as to why she will use her first ever vote to support the ruling party. Her cross will be “In honour of Nelson Mandela.” Was this really Madiba’s vision? Mind you, pretty much any result is possible. It is reported that the huge number of candidates offering themselves to the electorate has overwhelmed not only the IEC organising the show, but the candidates themselves. Allegedly one candidate appears on a ward ballot paper representing 3 different parties. No conflicts there then? The number of injunctions on our behaviour these days requires a fully charged smart phone loaded with the latest software to keep track. What levels of lockdown and load shedding am I under at this moment? Can I buy liquor without a mask on Sunday? Is my vaccination passport up to date? Can I drive to the Kruger? Is the polony safe? Where is my polling station on Monday? Whew! But elsewhere on the globe they have similar problems. In about half a dozen years we will be able to rent a private space station named Orbital Reef from Jeff Bezos (the Amazon man). It will be a “mixed-use” facility “suitable for commerce, research and tourism”. Apparently, Sandton parents are already asking about booking it for a so-called Matric Rage venue. Ballito, you know, is so last year. What we should be proud of, however, is that this nation has eliminated discrimination against women when it comes to employment opportunities. The deputy national police commissioner is Lieutenant-General Bonang Christine Mgwenya and she strengthened her credentials for high office this week by being arrested for fraud, corruption and theft involving a R191-million tender. Atta girl. Anyone standing for election and the opportunity to become a tax-eater should be required to pass a test that ensures that they understand long division and the concept of the resulting two-part units. Like “rands per tax-payer” and “kWH per kg”. The former is tripping up the brains that run the USA as they find out that even if they were to confiscate all the transferable wealth of say the thousand richest people in the land of the (sort of) free, it converts into a rather modest once off payment to each of the rest of the population and critically, it can happen only once. Understanding the amazingly inconvenient truths lurking in a study of the second unit will not feature at all at the COP 26 Jamboree about to take place in Glasgow. A few years ago Durban hosted this gathering of the lethally hypocritical and they mostly were not very nice people. Their meetings are become Councils of War about how to rid the world of one of its most important gaseous compounds – carbon-dioxide. The fact that it can’t and won’t happen is no deterrent to the angry and tearful delegates who will themselves generate tons of this colourless and odourless gas. Travelling, shouting, sluicing and browsing on the taxpayer’s dollar in comfy and salubrious surroundings is the real objective. Will there be a weigh-out of the of single use plastic waste items the eco-warriors will leave for the Glaswegians? It’s a hypocritical circus run by clowns who have managed to convince everyone else that their cause is so just and important that they need not wear the surgical masks that they want the rest of us to do. The reappearance of the attention-getting stunt of gluing ones more prominent body parts to roads and other silly places is amusing while you are not the one rushing a sick child to hospital. Oh, for the days when “Taking the Knee” would be redlined by your teacher as ungrammatical and anatomically nonsense. James Greener Friday 29th October 2021

VERY LOW DENSITY GAS

Suddenly most places around the world are experiencing shortages of various goods, some of which, like fuel, are rather important. Spectacularly, ships and trucks are backing up outside ports and warehouses all over the world. There are numerous reasons for this on offer, which suggests that the actual main reason has yet to be identified. Tidemarks’ view is that it will in due course be traced back to interfering bureaucrats and politicians making their own judgements about supply and demand and not letting the market do the job it is there for. Which is minutely and ceaselessly to examine every aspect of the so-called supply chains and ensure that breaks are speedily repaired. Allowing someone behind a desk in a ministry to decide how many cans of beans are required in Boston is a very poor idea. Especially when that official is trying to encapsulate his own views of things like climate change and respiratory virus infections into the decision. In the meantime, despite all the doom and confusion, South Africans are selling stuff to foreigners at unprecedented rates averaging more than R30bn’s net exports a month over the past quarter. A year ago, imports outweighed exports. This statistic is part of the reason why President Frog Boiler and his chums can afford to look so relaxed about money and rumble on about Basic Income grants and so forth. Over at National Treasury, taxes are starting to flow in just like the good old days and the spending spigots are open wide. Whew. Just in time to impress the electorate and line up some fried chicken and T shirts as thank you presents. Now while some good news is starting to seep under the door, it is disheartening for all of us to be warned and even assured that covid-19 infections are certain to increase again as Christmas approaches. The latest to make authoritative and knowledgeable noises about the start of the next so-called “wave” is the Premier of Gauteng. He has obviously already sounded alarm bells in certain areas. One liquor retailer has warned that any reimposition of sales bans will be lethal themselves for the economy and for their businesses. This contrast between signs of returning to normal (undoubtedly a long and hazardous journey) and a seemingly never ending and even escalating levels of state interference and control is alarming. Our “State of Disaster” continues, albeit currently at a low level, but our leaders seem loath to lift it entirely as they undoubtedly enjoy having such powerful strings to pull. There is obviously substantial attraction to becoming an elected official in South Africa. Even at the lowest municipal level. There are 60 000 candidates and 325 parties standing in the local authority elections scheduled to be held on Monday 1st November It is very obvious that something is wrong and that this is not proof of a healthy functioning democracy. The barrier to entry must be raised. Simply rejecting candidates who don’t live in the ward they hope to represent would be a good start. In fact there was time when municipal elections restricted voting to actual ratepayers and political parties were not involved. This seems a very good idea. There is nothing vaguely political in a sewage blockage. Oh. Wait! The discovery of substantial volumes of Helium gas in the Free State is a great delight for me who was once one of South Africa’s few practicing Reservoir Engineers, as it highlights a fact which few outside the industry know. Helium comes out of the ground. Just like natural gas, with which it is often associated. Fortunately, the recently announced discovery is in already very permeable rock formations and so the dreaded “fracking” red herring need not be raised. It is rather alarming that the size of the reserve is being quoted in units of “party balloons”. Cubic meters is more conventional. Not only are the referees in the United Rugby Championship under scrutiny for suspected bias but they are clearly colour blind. The number of matches in this tournament where the two teams take the field in very similar coloured kit is silly. There have been matches where if the South African team had resorted to their usual home strip the game would have been far easier to follow. Formula 1 also treat the casual fan with contempt by allowing cars with identical livery, bar a yellow strip invisible from the back. Harrumph. James Greener Friday 22nd October 2021

DCCC

This is the 800th edition of Tidemarks. This weekly personal amusement began in April 2004 as a supposedly sophisticated and omniscient end of the week summary of events in the financial markets, written by one of the nation’s most endangered species – an independent stockbroker. It has since deteriorated into a carefully crafted collection of caustic criticism and contempt heaped on pretty much anyone. But mostly on the world’s politicians, bureaucrats and other tax-eating lowlifes who so richly deserve it. Its subscription price faithfully reflects its value to the roughly 1000 readers who assure me that it improves their Friday experience. It certainly gets me through to opening time down at the Bowling Club Bar and encourages me to hunt ceaselessly for stories and examples of life as it is lived on the southern tip. And now with local elections looming the candidates are resorting to every silly idea in the book to garner votes. There hasn’t been one of those gala toilet opening ceremonies recently but there is a picture of a mayor standing in front of a lavish banner at the side of a long dusty empty gravel road stretching straight as an arrow towards a distant horizon. The caption claims that His Worship is opening the road. Well hooray. Alarmingly some of the ANC top brass including President Frog Boiler are promoting various rather technical solutions for the country’s electricity shortage. None of the gents involved have much of a clue about the topic but nice clever sounding words are being traded in the media. Load Shedding, aka power cuts, have restarted – a rather inopportune and embarrassing time for the ruling party. Dollar based commodity price indices are setting six-year highs and a nation like ours should at least be benefitting from exports of stuff dug out of the ground or grown on top of it. Maybe it’s why the runt still has a bit of value. Sadly, the government has already scared away significant amounts of human resource (smart well qualified people) capable of managing these processes. There is a squabble amongst various of our government departments about whether the very new “Vaccination Passport” is ready for release, but the fact is that it is already out there. It is fiendishly difficult to control the internet hey chaps? Two aspects are interesting. The first is that the document expires in early January. The second is that it carries a rather special looking QR code that is proudly described as “not meant to be read by anyone”. This does rather fan the flames of the conspiracy theorists who worry that the whole passport thing is the precursor to “deep state” control and “digital currency”. But the rest of us are now merely excited by the idea that we can presumably visit our overseas families and vice versa. Our national history of long being known as the bad boy of the world certainly still shows up in our suspicion that sports rules and officials always have the South African team in mind when looking for infringements. The latest niggle for me was the Rugby Championship referees not using just the jersey colour to identify a side. The use of the country name is unsettling. Now it seems that the four SA franchises now playing in the United Rugby Championship in Europe, are battling to come to terms with referees’ interpretations, especially in the second half, if the SA side is leading. Lots is being said and written about the ability of the man with the whistle to be overzealous and prevent the match from being an enjoyable spectacle. But what does Tidemarks know? After all he is puzzled by the rule in Formula 1 that penalises competitors for changing an engine in order to go faster! Which is the whole point of the race. There will be no Tidemarks next week as I am going birding for lifers in the high grasslands of Mpumalanga. A venerable and prestigious annual event attended by some of the best twitchers and drinkers in the land. James Greener Friday 8th October 2021 800 in Roman numerals or Durban Country Club Committee

JUST VOTE THEM ALL OUT

One of the most eye-catching chart movements at the moment is the weakening of the Hong Kong all share index. Presumably investors are selling in response to mainland China discarding the Mr Nice Guy disguise. Supposedly the complete absorption of the enclave by the parent was always going to happen despite all the platitudes uttered in the last decade. Political legs are being stretched everywhere with the most benign looking regimes unexpectedly turning into jack-booted thugs. Australia anyone? Our government has stepped into the crocodile-infested waters of philology and insulted many folks’ history, pride and citizenship. It widely thought that none of the tongues in common use on our land today were widespread in these parts say 350 years ago, so to decree some to be “indigenous” and others not, is rather foolish. As always, Tidemarks would like to leave the decisions to the market and the data that Afrikaans (currently being targeted by our leaders for euthanasia or at least downgrading) is spoken by 14% of the population seems like a big enough cohort to deserve a place in the sun.. The share of English is only 11%. Zulu and Xhosa are the top 2. Please note that the tax collector’s forms are available in English only. So don’t go too far down this path Mr Government! The analysis of the latest Voters Roll reveals that 26m of us are registered to vote in the forthcoming municipal elections. Voters under the age of 20 comprise only half a percent of the roll, with women outnumbering men throughout the age spectrum and in total making up 55% of the list. The first stat shows that the youth are utterly disillusioned with what we oldies are promising for their future and that there is no need to spend time and money lowering the voting age. The gender disparity proportion tends to increase with age, perhaps indicating that the fairer sex do believe as they get older that they can make a difference. The campaigning for this election has been dire with the ruling party whimpering that they know they haven’t performed in the last 2 dozen years but just to give them another chance. Please? We all suspect this is merely another way of asking for extended visiting hours at the public money trough. Tidemarks is aware that his thoughts on climate change don’t conform with the popular view. Reader’s reactions have been as harsh as to cancel their subscription. (say what?) It is indeed very unlikely that a population of 8 billion self-aware and focussed consumers, known ironically as homo sapiens, don’t have an impact on this planet that we occupy. But where and crucially, exactly how this works is not at all certain. The dreaded “green house” effect is particularly puzzling. The worst enemy of the planet allegedly is the carbon dioxide produced specifically by man’s insatiable demand for a good life. It turns out that consensus for the mechanisms at work in this supposed relationship are still elusive. Most of the outputs in this endeavour are spewed from computer models using approximated chemical and physical processes. Among the actual measurements available, are some from experiments conducted at the back end of domestic farm animals. Even that is probably tricky to carry out! The research waters in this field are tremendously muddied by the lethal symbiosis between researchers in need of grants and suppliers of that funding in both the private and public sectors. Strings are bound to be attached. The commercial interests are delighted to build and sell whatever heat-destroying gizmo a client wants. The politicians garner supporters by boarding whatever bandwagons are rolling through their constituency. Recently it was stated that investments (really?) of about $280-billion will be needed to cope with the effects of climate change in 35 cities in South Africa, Kenya and Ethiopia by 2050. New research (wowee!) shows that Africa is the fastest urbanising continent and also the hardest hit by global warming. Good luck with that, guys. Or are the stories of economies flattened by Covid, just fake news?. The All Blacks performance last weekend with uncharacteristically many handling errors, seemed also rather fake. Hmm? James Greener Friday 1st October 2021