PAPERS PLEASE

A gentle amble through the charts reveals that the sort of unanimity of most markets and prices were showing by going silently stronger has ceased. An edginess has appeared and sellers seem to be accepting softer prices for their wares than they were doing a few weeks ago. The talking head fraternity is doubtless earning its crust by offering reasons for this and maybe the dawning realisation that the US President Joe Biden is not as sharp these days as he used to be is making folk nervous. There are plenty of opinions about who actually is running the country with the most powerful military in the western world and that is not a good thing. Down here we are cheerfully in total disagreement about who is holding any reins at all, and every day reveals the existence of yet another advisory committee that presumably exists to tell our elected leaders the facts of life. The level of general and specialist knowledge in areas critical for governance is woeful. Instead of fussing about lowering the voting age we ought to be raising the eligible age for people seeking election to any office. Setting this bar at 40 should ensure that at least some candidates will have had the experience of running a business and meeting a payroll. Skills which ought better to equip them for telling other people what to do. Perhaps they would realise that the sight of a dozen well fed and dressed folk at the ceremonial opening of a toilet or a water tank is not, as they say in the PR industry, “great optics”! Many times in the past 18 months Tidemarks has lamented the apparent absence of consistent and credible “facts” around the current respiratory infection pandemic. The release of costly vaccines has only muddied the waters substantially. And incidentally has also made the maths of calculating the various infection and recovery metrics more difficult and misleading. Crucially, the lack of a swift, reliable and, most of all, accurate test of positive infection is another serious barrier to sensible debate. Particularly among those of us who are not one of the worlds few and true epidemiologists. A perfect example of how clueless we all are, appeared in President Cyril’s address to the nation, when he announced tiny incremental changes to the lockdown criteria. Weirdest of the lot was extending the sales hours for booze by a day. There was also some fiddling with the numbers of people permitted to attend gatherings. Oddly, a rapidly growing behaviour amongst some who have been vaccinated and are therefore less prone to future infection, has been antagonism towards the “unvaccinated” Does this imply a doubt that their treatment will be effective? It is worth noting that even “been vaccinated” is not entirely clear, as the drug manufacturers are now hinting that only lifelong treatment will provide sufficient protection. Nevertheless, Governments are already rewarding the “vaccinated” with so called “vaccine passports” that will allow holders sole or at least preferential access to state services. Would the unvaccinated be permitted to pay tax do you think? Interestingly, some private enterprises are imposing similar access control measures for their employees, clients, and customers. This seems to be an odd time to be hampering their own efforts to regain economic normalcy. It is not easy to determine whether the ‘bokke management’s new habit of firing off videos to the sport’s governing bodies after every test will cause more good than harm. We probably already have gained a reputation for being whining sore losers. Tidemarks never played rugby (unless the under 13B at Prep counts) and despite hours of patient instruction from my fellow topers while currently watching a game, still has a poor grasp of the rules. Especially those concerning what happens inside a scrum and the forward pass rule which appears to ignore geometry and misuses inertia. It would be interesting to know if the videos show any incidents involving the ‘bok side getting away with an infringement. It would also be comforting if the referees referred to the teams by jersey colour and not nationality. It might just add to an air of neutrality. James Greener (vaccinated) Friday 17th September 2021

YOUR PHONE SAYS “NO”

Despite the tax income in July being a meagre R80bn, our National Treasury wonks must be well pleased with a rolling 12-month income of R1.4 trillion. This is a record, and the new minister of finance must have been tempted to order lemonade and sticky buns all round. But perhaps he called for just a half-holiday instead so that no outsider watching would notice the celebration. However, his colleagues in cabinet must have had spies planted because the allocation to the spenders in government was also a record at 1.87trillion. Which resulted in a 12-month deficit of R470billion. Which means that 34% of the money our government spends, is borrowed. This is not good and it will take a lot more than the boomlet we are enjoying in commodity prices to smooth this out. The mining companies know a thing or two about saving for a rainy day and hiding profits in plain sight. The faux lament that “my whole life is on my phone” is no longer a subtle boast of just how tech savvy one is. It’s becoming real. News is that our leaders are about to introduce the so-called Vaccination Certificate Passports which will reside on our smart phones. Tidemarks notes that the combination of the poorly understood pandemic, rapidly growing technological capabilities and throngs of largely clueless politicians and their advisors are turning out to be a toxic mix from which a large and nasty ogre of control is emerging. Governments are behaving badly and are mostly delighted with these developments. But for the rest of us they should ring a huge alarm bell. One quick scan of your phone will provide all the information needed for untrustworthy bureaucrats to deny you access to pretty much anything from a library book to critical care in a hospital. Already Health minister Joe Phaahla has been telling National Council of Provinces that the government was considering banning non-vaccinated people from public amenities. No one could have ever imagined that a state president would end up getting health advice from his equally useless financial adviser. And yet that is what Jacob Zuma has done – although as yet he does not appear to be taking up golf like his mentor Schabir Schaik did after gaining a Medical Parole and being released from prison. Naturally there are many questions that scholars of the law and curious simple taxpayers would like to have answered. Firstly, what exactly ails our jovial dancing ex-president? Advocate Dali Mpofu (SC) who represents JZ has told Judge Piet Koen that Zuma’s medical team and that of the State were “finding each other” and “getting close to each other”. This is picturesque language but since the state’s doctors have not yet been able “to get close to Zuma” facts remain scarce. The key point, in case you’ve not been listening, is that Zuma has a very long-standing court appearance in his diary concerning the usual problem of money flowing in unusual directions. He has little desire to be there. This week the details of a minibus taxi crash that injured its 22 passengers (all school children) emerged. The vehicle was overloaded, unlicensed, and unroadworthy, and the driver did not have a licence! In a textbook example of the pressing need for competency tests for public officials before they are allowed to say something, the Transport MEC for the area reportedly warned that it is “up to users to check (that) the vehicle they hire is safe, competent and licensed”. No mention of this being the job of the authorities who are woefully failing in their traffic control duties. Ironically this week another glaringly badly managed, queue-bound, expensive failure of traffic control appeared. The inordinately lengthy and inefficient process of renewing a driver’s licence may soon be managed(?) by a booking system for an appointment requiring another R250 fee payment. So, one queues and pays to book a place in another queue to pay? No really! Currie Cup final and the next round of the Rugby Championship (have you noted that the All Blacks will be playing the curtain raiser to the bok game?) US Open Tennis finals and the third in a series of back-to-back F1 GPs. Oh, and Premier League resumes and Bafana Bafana are winning. I really must repair the captain’s armchair. James Greener Friday 10th September 2021

COME ON KIDS. YOU CAN DO THIS

Around the middle of August, the country’s share price (the rand exchange rate versus other currencies) began to strengthen. It is now about 5% better than that low point. Everyone will have a theory why this should be, but any suggesting that it reveals an optimism that our leaders know what they are doing is hard to accept. As you read this, the Constitutional Court could be handing down judgement on whether the Municipal elections, scheduled to be held next month, should go ahead or not. The ruling party seems to have failed to get its ducks in a row over this one and are frantically quacking for a postponement. Their unpreparedness is obviously related to their failure to pay staff salaries. Perspicacious commentators are wondering if the era of buying votes with a T-shirt and a bucket of (extremely colonial) fried chicken may be ending. The hospitality and travel industries are probably close contenders for being the sector most damaged by the official reactions and responses to the arrival of the Covid-19 pandemic 18 months ago. However, it is education where the disruptions will be felt the longest and deepest. The industry has been forced into the near total abandonment of the simple model of what used to be “talk and chalk”. Resource rich communities quickly adopted internet-based teaching methods, but these too have proved problematical because very few people have ever been trained in these skills. Further, as the options and outcomes changed, the poor souls at the front of the classrooms were expected to cope with the utter horrors of so-called “blended” classes where some learners were still at home and others were back at their obscenely over-sanitised desks. Even worse is the fact that the cast members of this tragedy – and for schools one needs also to factor in the parents – are able, day to day, to select which stage to appear on. Syllabi and planning were early victims of this shambles and undoubtedly the amount of knowledge transfer possible in the sometime savagely curtailed semesters has been minimal. But right at the forefront for fixing this debacle is the KZN Department of Education’s 12-point plan. Its idea is to enlist motivational speakers (!) who will “work on the “pupil’s psyches”. Apparently, this will more adequately prepare them for final exams than drills of times tables, exercises in grammar and writing and poring over diagrams of how the body works. Terrifying. BTW the motivational gurus will reach their huge audiences by radio. Really? And now it seems that the once respected previous Minister of Health Dr Zweli Mkhize has long been infected by the terrible illness so common amongst politicians. That is the inability to distinguish between his own money and government money. It is obviously so easy to do. You pop out to spend a couple of million on stuff for the office and before you know it you find you have bought private household essentials like luxury cars, handbags, and holidays. There is a related nonsense emerging from the assertion that government have sold 51% of SAA, the national airline, to a private consortium. Only it seems that the consortium’s money is not entirely private, and the smoke and mirrors are back at work obscuring exactly who owns what. The simple puzzling question in all of this is just why anyone thinks the nation or indeed anyone needs an airline that is going to start life with a record of appalling management and a debt at lease the size of the herd of our president’s prize buffalos. For folk who can’t see the point of soccer, the sports channels have become a punishment. The next round of matches in the very long sequence of international fixtures that will ultimately determine who gets to attend the World Cup in Qatar next year, has begun. The list of hopeful countries is like a geography quiz answer sheet, and one does marvel that they all apparently have both the manpower and real estate to host 22 people kicking a ball on a flat grassy patch. Like the Faroe Islands, Andorra and San Marino ? James Greener Friday 3rd September 2021

TV CRIME SOLVED

Brand new Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana’s first piece of legislation bears the ominous name of the Second Special Appropriation Bill. And it needs to be akin to magic. He must conjure up almost R33bn to pay for Covid-19 relief grants, soldiers’ deployment and support for the government’s all-risk insurer, SASRIA. Anecdotal evidence about claims on the last-named mendicant, arising from the looting frenzy, suggest this will not be quickly resolved. Just two months ago Enoch’s predecessor, Chef Tito, launched a similar cry for help. Soon thereafter he quit. He knew this larger call was inevitable. The sole bright and entertaining news concerns the looted TV sets which the manufacturer can disable remotely, just as soon as the screen is connected to the internet. Theft-proof TVs? Now there’s a thing. The staff who work at the offices of the ANC political party have not received salaries for a couple of months. These workers are now on strike but unfortunately for their sacrifices few outside of their bubble will notice or care. Reportedly the ANC still owes the taxman the PAYE deductions. Private sector employers are painfully aware that the tax man takes a very dim view of this practice! The great attraction of landing a job on these fringes of the least productive sector of the economy, is the possibility of discovering a cozy niche overlooking a strong and steady cashflow into which one can on occasion dip a sticky finger. Despite this and other ploys from the text book on state capture, the dire unemployment situation is affecting both rank and file members as well as senior ruling party cadres. The most prominent of these is no less than previous President Zuma, who this week released a glossy begging letter complete with bank account number for anyone who feels like helping out the old fellow. How humiliating for a man who once rubbed shoulders with some of the sleaziest conmen ever to have left India. Presumably the Guptas no longer take calls from Jacob. Our deputy president David Mabuza is a disappointing fellow. He seems to think that he has been the victim of poisoning attempts on several occasions. And presumably as a result, doesn’t trust anyone very much. For example, he chooses to go to Russia for medical treatment whenever he feels a bit off colour. He was no sooner back from his latest check up there when one out of the six generating units at the Medupi power station exploded. Its not known if he was scheduled to go and take a look at this shiny new piece of Eskom kit but it is reported that he feels that this failure rate represents a “fair” outcome. Really? So every sixth bridge, plane and high-rise must be treated with caution? Wow. The folk over at Stats SA have been having a great deal of fun playing with the nation’s GDP numbers. This week they published a whole new way of classifying and counting the figures. This revealed an economy about 11% larger than we thought, but still behind Nigeria and Egypt. In Stats SA’s own words there has been little time to inspect “under the hood” to see what the changes mean to our understanding, but both Education and Health have been reclassified as Personal Services instead of Government. This has the effect of vastly reducing the apparent share that the state has in the economy. Hmmmm? Curiously the growth rates -- the period to period change in the overall GDP number -- are little affected by the reclassifications but do remember all the sums are done with a data set that is entirely restated in the new bases. It has been decided that the half dozen tests outstanding in the northern hemisphere-baiting named Rugby Championship will all be played in Queensland. This is the Australian state that has just announced the creation of a concentration quarantine camp in the outback for unhealthy people suspected of being capable of passing on the Delta Variant of the Corona Virus. Can these events be a mere coincidence? Few predicted that the clash between people and their politicians would reach its climax in the calendar of sports fixtures. James Greener Friday 27th August 2021

GOODNESS. I DIDN’T REALISE THAT!

The US dollar is almost at a one year high against the Euro. Does this signify a (grudging) admiration for the developments that President Biden has enabled to unfold in Afghanistan? For what seems like a declining number of us, schooled in post-World War II western mores and scientific tradition, this is alarming. The world appears to prefer ignorance and superstition to enlightenment and rationality. Sloganeering and cruelty have become the tools of those who wield influence and power over the lives of anyone still naïve enough to believe that treating everyone with dignity and respect is worthwhile. President Cyril’s recent appearance at the Zondo Commission of enquiry into State Capture raised a few basic questions, in addition to the obvious ones like “What did Cyril know and when did he know it?” His display of utter astonishment when he was told about what was happening all around him when he held posts as high as the Vice Presidency was worthy of an acting award. Maybe, like most of us, he was at the outset puzzled about what exactly state capture is. But it is ludicrously simple and so widespread that it really ought to be granted a place in the summer Olympics. It is merely the act of stealing state assets and exercising executive powers for personal gain. Astonished feigned ignorance is a major tool in Frogboiler’s kit for running this country. It is hard to believe that a man running an enterprise for 60 million souls and a turnover in the trillions. i.e. South Africa, doesn’t make use of the current equivalent of a “cuttings service”. This would supply regular stacks of highlighted stories, articles, and scurrilous rumour in digestible form to even a presidential iPad. Maybe he would gain an inkling about what is happening in the country, and what people other than his sycophants, think of him. The numerous state departments with the word “Intelligence” in their titles seem to be useless. Presumably they were the ones who instructed Cyril that last month’s riots were an “insurrection. But according to minister of Defence and Military Veterans Nosiviwe Mapisa-Nqakula, the events were a “counter-revolution”. Her reward for putting him right was that this week he promoted her to Speaker of the House. The theory and methods of saving for retirement are very well known and documented. It’s why there are actuaries. This week the Department of Social Development behaved as if they had discovered the Higgs Boson’s little brother and announced an utterly impossible new defined benefit scheme for the whole country. This 30% school pass mark thing is going to destroy us all! One of the less discussed events of the looting and arson session last month was the torching of an inconspicuous warehouse in Cornubia, a development on Durban’s northern fringes. Almost immediately people began to complain of a terrible smell and even some respiratory problems caused by a plume of noxious fumes drifting from the warehouse which in fact burned for several days. In addition, it turned out that the fire containment efforts had filled the site’s drains with effluent which, presumably in defiance of rafts of regulation, flowed into the estuary at Umghlanga Rocks and soon a complete extinction of all marine life in the lagoon and shoreline was reported. The beaches in the area remain closed. This is an environmental catastrophe of the highest order and only the efforts of a team of investigative journalists have managed to keep the story alive. The unanswered questions continue to grow, especially as this week finally saw the release of what was in that warehouse. While few countries will have a legislature capable of fully understanding the dangers resulting from a chemical spill, and toxic chemicals are a murky secretive business, it might prove useful to put a few people including perhaps complicit local officials behind bars to jog their memories. It’s too late for the fish and birds. Last weekend’s victory by South African Brad Binder in a rain affected Moto GP was epic. Presumably growing up in in Potchefstroom he learned to ride in those Highveld torrential thunderstorms. James Greener Friday 20th August 2021

TEE-OFF TIME

What this nation needs to do is to find a wayto remove from all elected officials and their attending bureaucrats the power to do almost everything. In particular they must be banned from renaming things and shopping for cars unless paid for by themselves. As one clever fellow has already commented; he is sure that Winnie Mandela saw her legacy as being far grander than to be attached to a rather disappointing dorpie in the Free State. A particularly annoying development in the last few years is the renaming of municipalities and districts after deceased worthies. Losing any indication of just whereabouts the place being discussed may be in this large and beautiful land has been an unnecessary cost and inefficiency burden. While certainly achieving its primary objective of irritating old white people, it is doubtful if it has raised the profile or historical significance of the honourees in any way. The world is funny like that. The most recognisable t-shirt decoration on the planet is the face of a long dead deeply unpleasant Marxist revolutionary who didn’t really make anyone’s existence much happier. It feels as if we are being treated to a rerun of the Schabir Shaik comedy show. This was when Jacob Zuma’s spectacularly incompetent alleged financial advisor was released from jail after being convicted of fraud in 2005. It was claimed that he was terminally ill, and it would show great compassion if he could be released to let him run his life’s short course in the bosom of his family. It turned out that the consulting medics were referring to a golf course and the diagnosed deadly disease has responded to this treatment magnificently. Zuma has obviously taken advice from his old chum and has also now obtained a medical opinion which has released him from his prison cell where he has about a dozen months of his sentence for contempt of court still to run. A puzzling aspect of our previous president’s circumstances is that despite having a large extended family of wives and offspring, all news about his condition is jealously and secretly handled by The Jacob Zuma Foundation (an educational organisation). It is therefore unknown if he has yet purchased a set of golf clubs. Mere days after some sort of ludicrous handing-over milestone by the contractors to Eskom (the owner and operator) of the near decade-overdue Medupi power station, a big section of it blew up! Fortunately, no one was injured – maybe because there were no qualified staff around at the time? But the news has been delivered with sorrowful downcast head shaking and the equally ludicrous claim that it won’t have much effect on the nation’s power supplies. Sadly, given the incredible cost overrun of this project this is not a case of saying “Well, you get what you paid for.” For some reason information and data flows from Eskom appear to the layman at least, somewhat opaque and disingenuous. Fortunately, there are numerous highly experienced energy generation specialists with intimate knowledge of this State-Owned Enterprise keen to offer their views. But the fact is that this “Boom!” will have been noticed by everyone needing a stable electricity supply for their business investment location and they may as we speak be dropping S Africa from their list. There is something reassuringly nostalgic and endearingly establishment about the name of Jolidee Matongo, the new mayor of Johannesburg. Not everyone will know or remember the phrase “Jolly d” delivered in a haughty and plummy tone to express satisfaction and encouragement. He is also not short of advice of what to do once established in the top floor corner office. Mine would include booting every mendicant and distant relative back into the street. One particularly obvious lesson learned from the recent rugby test series is that stadia with pitches prepared for soccer are useless for the oval ball game. Even the most shameless footballer’s dive to feign injury does not have the same impact as 1800 kg and 32 studded boots thrusting away on the green sward. Doubtless this is well known amongst groundsmen the world over, but the sports are run by accountants who like the idea of multiple uses for the assets. James Greener Friday 13th August 2021 (International Left Hander’s Day)

SHOSHOLOZA!

President Cyril’s one way communication with us is getting tedious and a tad annoying. Perhaps it is because he doesn’t feel comfortable trying to work in English where he might correctly assume that questioners are trying to trip him up. Explaining the negative reaction by the rand to last night’s cabinet tinkering would not be easy for him. Similarly, discussing why he didn’t fire Bheki “The Hat” whose police force utterly failed to protect life and property in last month’s non-insurrection. is a topic he prefers to avoid. His most significant shuffle is brought about by the retirement of Finance Minister Tito Mboweni who is replaced by Enoch Godongwana. There has been some frantic overnight scrambling through the cuttings files to try and work out Enoch’s likely stance on matters financial. The latest exchequer figures show that Tito might have just been starting to get to grips with government spending. It would be a pity to squander that momentum. In the meantime, let’s hope someone plants out little Aloe Ferox, now that it is no longer called upon to make a half-yearly trip to parliament to illustrate Tito’s budgetary dilemma. There must have been singing and dancing in the corridors at National Treasury last weekend when they published that revenue for June 2021 was a record setting R205 billion. This is the largest amount in tax ever collected in a month and reportedly is due to bumper revenue for mining companies. Not everyone dislikes a weak currency. In the Expenditure Section however the celebrations will have been muted so as not to offend those who might be suffering from cutbacks in state handouts. Because that is what might just be happening. Year on year growth of the government’s 12 month spending pattern is now below 6%pa. This is low and frankly astonishing for a government whose most visible policy is to play Robin Hood for an ever-growing population of poor and unemployed. The Post Office is rapidly warming to the idea of enforcing of regulations which reserves for them the transport and delivery of any parcel weighing less than 1 kg. Hot food deliveries are exempt if only to prevent piles of rotting pizza building up at the sorting offices over the weekends. The slow disintegration of the state-owned postal service has spawned a huge and highly competitive private courier industry that is essential to its very many customers. The impact on employment and commercial efficiency of this task reservation will be devastating but nevertheless the politicians and bureaucrats have managed to convince themselves that it will be best for everyone in the long run. Right. Let’s in future post to all civil servants their salaries in cash. Mind you some pay packages for that lot could exceed 1 kg! What has happened to our sport? Are we all so absorbed in keeping body and soul together in the face of the consequences of our government’s handling of the Covid threat that we have no resources left to have fun and chase dreams? Many must have been discouraged and demoralised by the waves of unemployment followed by debilitating and incomprehensible mask and movement regulations. But other countries at the Olympics suffered too. That our male competitors and team sports fared particularly badly perhaps hints that state-encouraged racial selection criteria may have had an effect. There was however, one utterly amazing moment captured on video that should raise a tear in the eye of any still proud South African. It records the moment when the South African squad in Tokyo put on an ad hoc celebration for Gold Medallist Tatjana Schoenmaker. Politicians, watch this and crawl back under your stones. https://youtu.be/I4zMpGQswwM Copy and paste into your browser. Sniff. Hopefully there will be no tears on our side after the final and crucial test against the B & I Lions in Cape Town tomorrow. It feels as if this has been a particularly ill-tempered on and off the field encounter but reports from the tourists are gratifyingly positive about their time down here on the southern tip. James Greener Friday 6th August 2021