AND DAYS OF AULD LANG SYNE

A simple but crude indicator of how the shares which meet the criteria to be included in any average share price index are faring is simply to multiply the index by the earnings yield of that index. Doing that today for indices representing non-mining shares (supposedly resources companies are considered to be dancing to a different tune) reveals that the average industrial/financial company is reporting record earnings. That is, using the JSE as a gauge, nothing bad has happened to the nation’s wealth-creating capacities. In fact the opposite is happening. Prices of high-end luxury goods and homes corroborate this. However, the queues of people at the post offices awaiting their very meagre state-handout is the other side of this very weird coin. This observation ought to be keeping members of the ruling elite worried and awake at night but no such luck. Well actually they are wide awake late into the night consuming those ridiculously over-priced liquors that appear in bottle store catalogues every festive season. Cynics assure us that this year’s 60 year old tipple is merely last year’s unsold 50 year old, rebottled! It certainly looks identical! The exact status and location of our previous president, Jacob Zuma is unclear. At least one government agency wants him back in prison as they believe his medical parole has expired. Aside from the rather unfriendly and unseasonable timing of this development, the only people gaining any cheer will be legal eagles flocking to gain a share of the fees that the arguing for and against this idea will undoubtedly be racking up. In the meantime, our sitting president (Cyril the Frogboiler) has unfortunately tested positive for the current virus doing the rounds and VP David Mabuza is in the hot seat. So far he has been low profile and cautious despite chairing the most recent meeting of National Coronavirus Command Council. This body is known often to surge down tangential paths in pursuit of redder herrings but so far all is quiet. All we got on the recent public holiday, named ironically “Day of Reconciliation”, was a very non conciliatory speech praising murderous terrorists long gone and hopefully soon forgotten. There is a very long list of special things that the Webb space-based telescope will be directed to look at after it takes up position next week about one and a half million kms above the earth. The one thing it won’t do however is take any photos in the visible light part of the spectrum. All the very special detectors work in the infra-red and so presumably we’ll be fed reconstructed false colour images. It’s a red-shift thing! Reportedly the Webb has cost US$ 11bn and is 10 times over budget. The US taxpayer had paid for the largest share by far. The world will certainly miss these generous and inquisitive Americans when one day they run out of money! Has anyone thought to invite those protesting the plan to conduct a seismic mapping program in the ocean off the Wild Coast, to nominate a small team to go aboard the seismic survey ship towing the large arrays of equipment. It is rather boring though, as it steams steadily along long and predetermined tracks for the duration of the survey. Days of tedium will provide ample opportunity for them to learn that this exercise has been carried out along the whole South African coastline since about 1975 without any reports of mass extinctions (or even disturbance) occurring in the marine wildlife. But do warn the nominees that near fatal sea sickness is likely and the principal distraction will be retrieving the equipment for repair, following the inevitable shark bites to the towed arrays. Oh, and there is also the fun of watching the GPS spot trudge across the screen. This will be the final Tidemarks of the year and I want to thank all the readers, fans and critics for providing just enough feedback to keep me from realising that these jottings are really quite silly and pointless. Mind you I must note that several times a year, a point raised in TM shows up elsewhere. But that’s just coincidence I suppose. So please have a Merry and Happy Christmas and a Safe and Healthy New Year. James Greener Friday 17th December 2021.

POP GOES THE WEASEL

The nation’s Gross Domestic Product for the third quarter 2021 was released by Stats SA this week and good news was hard to find. We have yet to recover from the “Big Hit” in the second quarter of 2020 which erased almost 20% from the nation’s economic scorecard. That was when we all managed to scare ourselves that the end was nigh and the best we could do was to sit and wait for a virus to obliterate civilisation. While that has thankfully turned out to be spectacularly wrong, many politicians and leaders have been reluctant to give up the powers they awarded themselves at the start of the crisis and are still lurking with edicts and decrees which are hampering citizens in desperate need of a swift recovery. It is telling and important to repeat that the former group are characterised by not having missed a pay day during the close on 2 years this incident has lasted, while the latter almost universally have. This craze for opening Pop-Up stores arrived in SA a few years ago, but until now did not make much of an impact here on the eastern shores. Mind you, Tidemarks is a reluctant and disappointing shopper at the best of times so this observation could be faulty. Suddenly, however, Pop-Ups are now ubiquitous but seem to be confined to the medical services. Which is rather odd, because one associates health care with starched white uniforms, gleaming floors and sterile procedures and not scruffy gazebos in a garage forecourt or a mall parking lot. Komatipoort is a delightfully busy and vibrant African town which perhaps rivals the notorious Wuhan Wet Market for being a rich source of pathogens. Nonetheless, under a flapping canvas shelter, near the very busy entrance to the SPAR supermarket, a vaccination medical team were jabbing away as if it was a darts match final. More numerous than vaccination centres are the businesses offering to test for ones Covid-19 infection status. Presumably this is because there is a financial incentive. The going rate for a test seems to be in the region of R850 a patient, and cash and cards are gratefully accepted. Limited research suggests that this rate is much the same all over the globe – interesting. The one operating from a small tent pitched right in the main footfall path of the popular Restaurant Row in Umghlanga Rocks, promises same-day results for a PCR test. This is indeed speedy and somewhat at odds with the methodology developed by Prof Kary Mullis the inventor of the procedure. But with establishments like this at every street corner, bowling clubhouse and taxi rank, it’s little wonder that reports of nearly ten thousand new infections are being reported every day. Also intriguing is the confidence with which new cases are ascribed as being due to the latest named “variant”. Perhaps it would be helpful if this news were not shared so lavishly when there are so many amateur virologists keen to proffer conflicting prognoses which get the aforementioned leaders unduly excited. Once upon a time, markets used to anticipate the official release of all kinds of numbers deemed important for interpreting the past and divining the future. Parameters such as the repo rate , the trade balance , gross domestic product, even the sales of cement and the inflation rate all had their teams of observers and shills prepared to deliver whatever story best suited their book. Or to be truthful, their client’s book. This may not still be the case as Tidemarks no longer sits in a dealing room and is deliriously ignorant about the real world out there. However, it does appear that things are not like they used to be and the accuracy, credibility and reliability of many official statistics, from both the public and the private sector have undoubtedly deteriorated. The term “audited financial statements” probably no longer has the cachet it once used to. Very few reports of public spending are trustworthy. The owners and operators of the Formula 1 jamboree must be delighted that the championship has come down to the last race. What a bonus for sponsors and advertisers and a case study for sceptics of the power of free markets. The break in the steady flow of Tidemarks was due to me going to the Kruger National Park for 2 weeks. Thanks for the numerous enquiries from concerned well-wishers. James Greener Friday 10th December 2021