RUSSIAN LOAD-SHEDDING

The currency and the bond market are both being hit by sellers. Shares, however, are mostly unaffected. Has a non-resident holder of a large bond portfolio heard something that he didn’t like? It’s definitely unsettling. The weakness began even before Governor Kganyago told us that there was no need to change the price of money - yet. The big factor for these markets, however, is the ongoing and nasty campaign to side-line Finance Minister Gordhan. It is quite remarkable how he is standing up to threats of arrest and harassment. The example set by one of his predecessors, Barend du Plessis to retire to a Swiss lakeside chalet must be very tempting.

Less serious, but also indicative of how the authorities are fretting about the small stuff is the ruling that the SABC radio stations must play 90% local music. Is this a ploy to save foreign exchange on royalty payments? And then there’s the idea that raising the drinking age to 21 will solve a range of social ills. Here in Durban a spurt of enthusiasm for long dormant by-laws threatens anyone loitering naked up a tree in a public place with a R6500 fine.

It really doesn’t matter where our Parliament is housed. It has become an irrelevant and costly colonial relic. Even on the rare occasions when speakers are allowed to deliver their opinions uninterrupted, the audience is either fast asleep or implacably decided in their own positions. The physical destruction of the Cape Town premises is already underway with several Honourable (say what?) Members displaying their indignation at their expulsion for hooligan behaviour by breaking stuff. It won’t be long before the building is torched as has recently happened to university buildings country-wide. In one rather interesting incident school children, not yet actually able to drive a car, burned a vehicle licencing office to the ground. Do our leaders even care?

Someone does though. Photos show large trucks with mobile school rooms on board racing up the N1 Freeway to where a number of schools were destroyed by adults unhappy about a political ruling. Despite most taxpayers angrily preparing to dismiss pleas for help and reconstruction, other more forgiving and selfless souls have already mobilised charity and support for the innocent school-less pupils. This is a hell of a country.

Number One is putting some serious mileage on the presidential jet. No wonder it’s about to be replaced with something newer.  At least two trips to Arabia in as many weeks. We are not told anything beyond bland waffle that he is having talks about matters of mutual interest. Now that JZ’s best friends have moved into some very fancy digs in the region, perhaps he also pops in there for a chat and to deliver the diplomatic bag of goodies his mates left behind in their hasty departure from Saxonwold.

There is little doubt that the Russians believe that they have a deal with SA for the delivery of a fleet of uranium fuelled power stations. Why else would they be offering ten scholarships to study for a Master’s degree in Nuclear Physics and Technology? Mind you they have taken the precaution of getting the SA taxpayer to pick up much of the tab. We will pay for the airfares and a monthly living allowance for the expected 2 to 3-year duration of the scholarship plus a settling-in allowance. The Russians will spring for a “basic” monthly allowance and the tuition (negligible as presumably the course is being given to others anyway). One small matter to note though is that successful applicants will first need to pass a one year course in Russian.

Why aren’t all those Kiwis who were so nasty to the all-white Springboks when they tried to tour there in the bad old days outraged by the idea of a Maori All Black team? Those righteous and indignant long-haired unwashed lads and lasses are now presumably nodding off in front of their TV. Is there just a touch of irony there if not hypocrisy?

James Greener

Friday 20^th May 2016

The tide will leave no marks for a few weeks since I am off to the Kalahari in search of lions, larks and leprechauns. Well perhaps not leprechauns.

FLAGS BEFORE TEXTBOOKS

Number One went off to Eskom head office for a chin wag over a cup of tea and emerged with the assurance that the nation need never again fear load shedding. That is indeed great news but our pres is not too hot on large numbers and is undoubtedly lost when it comes to Megawatts and stuff. While new generating capacity is coming on stream, the main reason we have more power than we need right now is because so many big users have shut down their operations. If all our mines and factories and plants were back up working at full steam, us little people would be back to candles and gas.

Mere outsiders have little chance of understanding just what is happening with our domestic airlines. While it seems obvious to most that without the taxpayer’s generous help the national airline would be in deep trouble, the lady chairman of SAA believes that she no longer needs help from the National Treasury. Is she hoping for a surge in passenger numbers as a result of the suspiciously timed regulatory attacks that have been launched against two of the competitors? In both cases the charges look like bureaucratic nit-picking that should have been privately discussed first before making public the alleged contraventions of safety and ownership.

Everyone concerned about the utterly woeful inability of our nation to provide and operate effective and competent schooling for all of its children will have stared in disbelief at the latest proposal. Every school uniform should carry the national flag emblem. How this will help raise us from the foot of the world ranking tables is not explained. Cynics are right to wonder who stands to profit from this idiocy and whether there is already a factory in China churning out the badges. And has anybody thought about what happens when all those lovely rainbow colours meet the weekly washing process?  

Very little good has come from South Africa’s insistence a few years ago that it should join the meaningless grouping of four widely disparate economies, identified and named with the catchy BRICs acronym. Our presence did capitalise the terminal S and it has added wonderful material for the Zuma family album and memoirs. Less exciting was the bill for our share in starting up the BRICS bank and now one of JZ’s new best friends in that club has suddenly been impeached! That’s a development the folks back home don’t need to hear too much about.

It’s been a bad week for the statute book. A number of pesky laws are about to be ignored. Without debating whether having and using a TV set might not disqualify one from being classified as truly poor, the minister thinks that such folk should be absolved from purchasing a TV licence. Obviously it is important that the people get to watch politicians talk without the threat of inspectors carting away unlicensed TV sets. And then the Constitutional Court has been asked to confirm their earlier opinion that the law insists that the Voters Roll must record an address for every voter. In practise, even given unlimited time, this is an impossible requirement to fulfil, some fancy legal footwork is expected so that democracy can take its course. And wont it also be easier to move voters to constituencies at risk of making poor decisions?

Including the ever entertaining Sevens format there is a feast of rugby this weekend although the Sharks match might compete with bed time by straying into Sunday morning. But at least we are back to the 2pm Grand Prix starting times.

James Greener

Friday 13^th May 2016

WHAT’S A POSTAGE STAMP FOR, DADDY?

Both share prices and the currency appear to have been frightened by the storms that swept across the country last weekend (including Durban). When it’s too rough to launch the ski boat there’s opportunity to read and do too much thinking. The big market news though is that Barclays have made a start of getting rid of their ABSA shares. And despite the warnings that borrowers are finding it increasingly difficult to service their loans, there has been good demand for this sizable chunk of a local bank. On the other side of the trade though is the pressure of converting all these rands into pounds might be a headwind for the currency for a while.

Other money news is that a posse of ministers has been visiting the banks to find out why they have all closed accounts belonging to our great friends the Gupta family. “Reputational risk” seems a weak excuse when you see who else in this place can have a bank account. There may be something much more sinister which we have yet to hear about. The allegations that great bulging sacks of folding stuff passed through the gates of the Gupta residence on a regular basis is intriguing. It can be noted though that the rather mundane daily report from the Reserve Bank about the quantity of notes and coins in circulation shows no particular anomalies.

It was surprising to see that terrestrial digital TV nonsense getting a mention again this week. It seems that the squabble about who gets to build the required set-top boxes to decode the digital signals is still ongoing as is the fight about how those boxes should work. By international agreement this system should have been in operation country-wide a year ago. Undoubtedly funny money flows are at the heart of this tardy decision making. But now it may be switched on in the remote and sparsely populated Northern Cape region quite soon. Why? Presumably Botswana and Namibia are complaining that our now illegal old-style analogue TV signals are leaking into their territories and mucking up their whizz-bang modern uses for that piece of the broadcast spectrum.

It is fascinating that a helium mine is now in production in the Free State. It’s surprising that the sole source of this second lightest of the gasses actually is from subterranean reservoirs and in this case there is even some very useful natural gas as a co-product. High tech stuff among the mielie fields. You just have to love this place.

Many eyebrows were raised when Mark Barnes, a man who is well known in local investment circles and already has his hands full trying to coaxing performance from a small listed company, accepted the job of running the Post Office. His laudable success in raising a considerable sum of new money is now threatened with a workers strike which may well be the meteor strike that will cause the total extinction of this dinosaur. There must however, be a few nice assets still attached to the old bones of this carcase. Vultures will be circling.

The South African National Taxi Council were last in the news, more than a year ago when hosting a great launch party for a new airline that has yet to flap a single wing. Now they have popped up asking the minister of transport for regulatory powers so they can help curb the lethal lawlessness of their members. No way is this a good idea. If the price of a traffic cop is a blue buffalo just think how much cheaper one’s colleagues are. Only the very unlikely introduction of a trained, dedicated and incorruptible police force will start to reduce the awful carnage in which the owners and drivers of the minibuses play such a large part.

I’m not a great soccer watcher but the incident-filled league-deciding match between two London sides was very entertaining. Four whole goals and almost a bridge hand of yellow cards! For a rugby fan the yellow-card rule is odd because usually there is almost no benefit to the side that is fouled and scant immediate effective sanction on the player committing the offence. Nonetheless the folk in some small city on the right hand side of that soggy island seemed pleased. Which can’t be said of anyone following our cricket “stars” in the IPL jamboree or South African Super Rugby sides.

James Greener

Friday 6^th May 2016