SCRAMBLED IN TRANSMISSION

The markets are pretending that they have recovered from the visit of the small but ill-tempered bear and only the rand / pound sterling exchange rate chart hasn’t reversed. Surely it can’t just be rugby fans preparing for their trip to the soggy island for the World Cup who are selling rands and buying pounds in such quantity? Barclays must be pondering their purchase of ABSA. So far, however, no large international bank has yet listed South Africa among the regions where they are withdrawing so they must making money here still.

Understanding the Greek situation is easy. One side has run out of money, the other has run out of patience. The various forecasts of what happens next are going to be tested. The answer is probably “not much”. Lenders are going to get IOUs instead of money and Greek citizens expecting a steady flow of pensions, salaries and hand-outs will likely be very disappointed. But it is likely that the euro will survive for a while longer, mainly because the European Central Bank has chosen to do something it’s not supposed to do and print money. For millennia this has been the remedy adopted by the rulers of empires and it will work this time too. The interesting question is: Which nation will be next? There are many candidates.

Once again Eskom has become the centre of attention with the publication of their argument in support of massive price rises. Several analysts have pounced on the numbers and gleefully demonstrated flawed assumptions, simple errors and perhaps even misleading nonsense. Here in Durban domestic consumers are paying just over R1.15 per kilowatt hour, a tariff which is 80% higher than 5 years ago. Eskom claims that the cost of the same amount of power from the woefully behind schedule and exorbitantly expensive new coal fired power stations will be R1.00 so clearly there is very little margin for everyone else in the chain to be able to afford the better things in life! Unless the regulator has the clout and resolve to insist that Eskom carries out a massive clean-out of its wasteful and profligate units and practices it seems inevitable that they will be forced to allow the egregious increase. Even some politicians have begun to notice and to complain that the utility is strangling the growth out of the country, but whether they have the knowledge and skill to craft a solution to the problem is doubtful. More candles please Jeeves.

So the date by when we had to stop broadcasting TV in a way which is no longer efficient and suitable, has passed. This ranks South Africa alongside a handful of nations who are also baffled by this new technology stuff. But not to worry, the minister has assured everyone that the government is right on top of the problem. For a start, she has visited those of our neighbours who have made the internationally scheduled changeover and begged them not to “leak” their smart digital signals across the border and interfere with the electorate’s ability to watch parliamentarians behaving badly and similar soap operas on their old steam-powered televisual apparatus. Part of the delay in implementing the changeover arises from the state’s intention to woo voters with free and subsidised converter equipment. Naturally this intervention will distort the market and the parties who hope to benefit from the mispricing that will occur are squabbling fiercely. Just another day on the southern tip.

With just one SA team in the Super 15 playoffs, many of us will have to suppress our natural instincts and support the Stormers. Hopefully they won’t be overcome by the occasion like the baby ‘bokke were at their U20 World Cup semis. So the US golf chiefs decided to mark the centenary of the Great War by playing this year’s US Open on a course that resembles a battle field from that conflict. Even if you are not a golfer just take a look at it sometime this weekend. Already there have been some notable casualties. For a moment it sounded as if the Vatican were entering a team in the Tour de France. But then it turned out that an Encyclical is merely a 200 page message about the dangers of carbon dioxide.

James Greener

Friday 19^th June 2015 (World Sauntering Day)

THE MORE THE MERRIER

At long last the “experiment” being conducted by central banks of holding interest rates at ridiculously low (negative even) levels may be coming to an end. Numerous doctoral students now have floods of material for their theses and the debate about the effectiveness and success of the policy will rage for years. Those of us who believe that even the price of money is best resolved in a free market will begin to feel a bit happier. Savers have had the worst of it and there is scant evidence that borrowers did very much more than use the opportunity to extinguish debts incurred a decade ago. Economic recovery has been patchy. A widely held theory maintains that higher interest rates tend to depress share prices. Present movements in the markets seem to lend support to that theory. The JSE is rather wobbly.

It will be surprising if Telkom’s plan to let a quarter of its workforce go doesn’t cause a great deal of labour unrest. It will surely not improve telephone line repair response times. Surely all government departments and state owned enterprises could also fire 25% of their staff. And do so starting at the top. A pair of photographs published on the web, show the official line-up of Obama’s and Zuma’s cabinets. The USA squad is sparse and sleek. But only a wide-angle lens was able to capture all of JZ’s top team. It’s now dawning on us that the plan to create millions of jobs is largely about making every government supporter a civil servant. If there’s any sort of problem there, well no one in power has spotted it yet

The snappy BRICs acronym that was coined a few years ago for four countries with similar economic potential is no longer very useful. The rot probably began when South Africa invited itself aboard and capitalised the fifth letter.  Despite the insistent claims, our mismatch with most of the other members is massive and the presence and contribution of our delegates to the meetings is probably regarded by the by the Chinese and Indian behemoths as a comedy slot by a potential (very) small customer. It remains to be seen just what benefits, if any, our nation gains from this club beyond a dodgy deal for nuclear power, medical treatment for Number 1 and the obligation to help fund a brand new development bank. Wouldn’t it be fun to learn that the others ran a book on which wife JZ brings to the junket each time?

At last the mystery of youth has been solved. There is no limit to being young. The ANC Youth League has scrapped the 35 years upper age limit for membership. After all, 35 was just a number and the rule was quite probably ageist. Now let’s wait to see if the ANC Woman’s League removes their sexist membership criteria. However, what is most definitely racist is the innovative and unusual government program to lend to suitable black farmers each a herd of 30 cows in-calf plus a bull. The debt is repayable with a similar sized herd in 5 years time. Successful ranchers could soon be reaping handsome profits if the bull is up to it.  The nice part is that the cattle are of the majestic and beautiful Nguni breed! 

Apparently our locational privacy is under threat. This is the newest and strangest reason being advanced for opposing the e-toll system. The problem is that the government could use the e-toll records to monitor our movements.  While this is true, cell phones also have that capability and can do so all over the world, not just on a few roads in Gauteng.. But given that the government can’t yet send out correct and timeous invoices for the tolls perhaps we have little to fear from any imminent queries about our suspicious journeys.

The rugby being played by the baby bokke is entertaining and gratifyingly successful, unlike most of Sharks’ games this year. Tomorrow’s match will be so hampered by emotional farewells that the Stormers have sent their B team reserves to Kings Park to wrap things up. There will be more tissues than tries you can be sure of that.

James Greener

12^th June 2015

OUR MONEY TAKES THE CHICKEN RUN

Already there are pundits saying that the bear can stop and return to its lair now and that 7% down in the last month is quite enough thanks. But just seven years ago market valuations were at a level which would be equalled currently only if prices fell another 50%. This shocker is merely the outcome of some simple arithmetic together with the assumption that company earnings stay more or less constant. But if earnings begin to leak away then all bets are off and even worse carnage might follow. It is worth noting that the decline is taking place in shares from all economic sectors. In the past few years it was often just the mining and resources counters which weakened. 

Unfortunately the runt and bonds are also taking a pasting this week. Money is definitely leaving the country, as overseas investors start to end their flirtation with so-called emerging markets. Proper pessimists might suggests that the new and overly onerous visa requirements for tourists considering coming to our freezing shores is reducing the demand for our money and so now a pound sterling will buy 19 rands. Wow!

This is all rather technical and decidedly gloomy and the probability of a sudden and lengthy collapse is quite small. Remember that research suggests that investors holding shares in quality companies with excellent managers and terrific brands almost never gain from selling those holdings with the intention of replacing them at lower prices. Rather just sit tight and wait to add to those holdings at leisure later on.

A decade ago Mr Schabir Shaik, the spectacularly unsuccessful financial advisor to the man who is now our president, Jacob Zuma, was convicted of fraud and corruption and sent to prison. Sadly he developed what was diagnosed as a terminal cardiac condition and was released on medical parole after serving just three years of his lengthy sentence. Fortunately sojourns in luxury game lodges and rounds of golf appear to have ameliorated the condition. But this week Mr Shaik requested a relaxation of his parole conditions in order to consult a medical specialist overseas. The more cynical amongst us wonder why he has not been referred to one of the Cuban doctors brought in by his former client. But perhaps Mr Shaik has other chores to attend to overseas.

The blattering that portfolios are suffering are nothing compared to the rapid decline in the fame and fortune of many soccer administrators.. The FBI, who until a few years ago didn’t even know what soccer was, have produced evidence and informants eager to confirm the extent  of the corruption practiced by  FIFA and its acolytes and associates. While most fans and players are certainly delighted with developments, there are pods of panic popping in plenty of places. Not least in South Africa where the government pushed Minister Mbalula out to the podium as the sacrificial spokesman. In his office, every dictionary and thesaurus is open at the word “bribe” in a frantic search to find a kinder word to describe the clandestine payment of money in return for benefits. His performances so far have been derisory and come hard on the heels of his colleague police Minister Nhleko’s explanation of why the president’s own cows and chickens compromise his safety. Maybe it really is time for us all to take to the streets in protest at paying taxes to these buffoons who treat us with contempt.

The Super Rugby tournament has reached that stage where the mental arithmetic wizards can command respect at the bar with the “ifs” and “thens” of which teams could make the playoffs. The rest of us are content to order another round and wait until it’s confirmed in the papers. In Formula 1 even the dead certainties can be derailed by team orders but it seems unlikely that anyone but a Mercedes driver will be this year’s champion. I wonder if the FBI has a file on Mr Ecclestone?

James Greener

5^th June 2015